US fears attack on diplomatic mission, set to withdraw diplomats from Iraq

In a region polarised between allies of Iran and the United States, Iraq is the rare exception: a country that has close ties with both. But that has left it open to a perennial risk of becoming a battle ground in a proxy war.

Now, Washington is set to withdraw diplomats from Iraq after warning Baghdad it could shut its embassy -- a step Iraqis fear could turn their country into a battle zone.

Any move by the United States to scale down its diplomatic presence in a country where it has up to 5,000 troops would be widely seen in the region as an escalation of its confrontation with Iran, which Washington blames for missile and bomb attacks.

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That in turn would open the possibility of military action, with just weeks to go before an election in which President Donald Trump has campaigned on a hard line towards Tehran and its proxies.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened to close the embassy in a phone call a week ago to President Barham Salih. The conversation was initially reported by an Iraqi news website.

Two Iraqi officials told The Wall Street Journal that Washington is already taking preliminary steps so it could close the embassy while retaining its consulate in Erbil, the capital of Iraq's northern Kurdistan Region.

Al-Arabiya reported citing US sources in Iraq that American diplomats are afraid of a possible attack on the embassy in Baghdad and that hostages could be taken. According to Al-Arabiya, Pompeo has given the Iraqi prime minister until Monday to meet a number of conditions, including a decisive response of the government to the regular attacks on the Green Zone.

The Green Zone comes under occasional rocket attacks on account of it being the location where government buildings and foreign embassies are situated, which is also not far from the Baghdad International Airport, adjacent to a military airfield. As a rule, such incidents do not result in casualties among the civilians and do not entail significant damage.

By Sunday, Washington had begun preparations to withdraw diplomatic staff if such a decision is taken. The concern among the Iraqis is that pulling out diplomats would be followed quickly by military action against forces Washington blamed for attacks.

One of the Western diplomats said the US administration did not "want to be limited in their options" to weaken Iran or pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.

The US State Department, asked about plans to withdraw from Iraq, said: "We never comment on the Secretary's private diplomatic conversations with foreign leaders ... Iran-backed groups launching rockets at our Embassy are a danger not only to us but to the Government of Iraq."

Rockets regularly fly across the Tigris towards the heavily fortified US diplomatic compound, constructed to be the biggest US embassy in the world in central Baghdad's so-called Green Zone during the US occupation after a 2003 invasion.

In recent weeks rocket attacks near the embassy have increased and roadside bombs targeted convoys carrying equipment to the US-led military coalition. One roadside attack hit a British convoy in Baghdad, the first of its kind against Western diplomats in Iraq for years.

Iraqis are also concerned about the impact of November's presidential election on the Trump administration's decision-making.

While Trump has boasted of his hard line against Iran, he has also long promised to withdraw US troops from engagements in the Middle East. The United States is already drawing down its force sent to help defeat Islamic State fighters in Iraq from 2014-2017.

The militias are under public pressure to rein in supporters who might provoke Washington. Since last year, public opinion in Iraq has turned sharply against political groups seen as fomenting violence on behalf of Iran.

(with inputs from agencies)