Washington DC

Election Night in the US begins as soon as polls close and the sun sets on November 5 in different time zones on the east and west coasts of America.

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Will it be an orderly election that would declare either Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump as the winner?

Or will there be chaos?

Here is how the election night will unfold, based on past experience.

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Much of the US election results are, in a manner of speaking, 'taken over' by the media outlets, particularly TV channels like CNN, Fox News, NBC News, ABC News and CBS News, who keep projecting and 'calling the election' for different states based on their mathematical calculations.

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The only news organisation that's officially allowed to declare elections is the Associated Press News agency.

The first states to close polling from 7 pm Eastern Time will start these trends. This will continue up to 1 am, November 6, when polls close last in Hawaii and Alaska.

As soon as the election is over, the exit polls will start trickling in, besides the state-level projections.

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Exit polls, which will also include public opinion on various issues, could be a strong indicator of how people have voted.

What one should watch out for are the projections for the battleground states. This time, there are seven: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Remember the magic number 270

Remember that the popular vote does not decide American presidential elections.

The picture will become clearer only when we know how many electoral votes each candidate got.

Among swing states, the polls will close first in Georgia.

Whatever projections come out of Georgia could set the tone for the rest of the night. Unless there are legal challenges, Georgia could be the first state to declare who won its 16 electoral college votes, out of the total  538 for the whole nation.

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That could be delayed, if there are questions and lawsuits like last time.

Nationally, the Electoral College vote majority mark is 270, and whoever gets that number wins the election, irrespective of the popular vote.

While swing states are keenly watched, early results could come from small, non-battleground states. 

Along with the presidential elections, several local polls are being held on November 5, whose results will trickle in throughout the election night and subsequent hours.

In cases where there are disputes, these results- federal or local - could drag on for days or months.

Two scenarios: Order vs Chaos

In case of an orderly election, the picture will be clear as soon as most of the swing state electoral college vote results are in, as long as the states considered non-battlegrounds suddenly spring surprises.

Already, there's such a surprise happening with Iowa, where according to polls, Trump - earlier thought to be winning- might face a challenge.

Where are the candidates going to be?

Trump will be watching the results and addressing supporters from a convention centre in Palm Beach, Florida.

Harris will be with her supporters at Howard University, a traditionally Black educational institution where she had studied.

Concede or not concede, that's the question

If the results are clear-cut, and there's no room for suspense or suspicion, the losing candidate traditionally concedes defeat on election night itself.

Once the concession speech/message is delivered by the losing candidate, the winner addresses his or her supporters with a victory speech.

But this election is far from 'traditional'.

Already there are court cases about dropped ballots, eligibility and citizenship questions, and vote suppression allegations.

The rivals, particularly Republicans, are fighting for each vote.

So it would be better to concentrate on what happens if the elections are not orderly.

In other words, what if one candidate does not concede?

At several counting centres, the Republicans - or Democrats, though that seems highly unlikely - could file numerous lawsuits challenging the outcome and seeking recounts.

The recounts, if ordered by the courts, can take hours or even days, as it is a laborious yet thorough process. 

It is highly unlikely that Kamala Harris would not concede if the verdict is clearly favouring Trump.

But if Trump appears to lose, it could be a different scenario altogether, if we go by last time.

There is, however, a possible change of heart in Trump if he loses as per some experts, because of two key reasons.

One is that he is already facing court cases related to the 2021 Capitol riots, which resulted from his refusal to accept the results.

A repeat of those 'crimes' could only see him going in and out of court for the rest of his life.

Two, there's frankly not much left for him to fight for, as this is possibly his last shot at the White House given his advanced age.

What if states are not called by Election Night?

Things could get dragged on for days, or weeks, pending legal battles.

In 2020, several states were not called due to recounting or lawsuits. 

This is quite possible as the opinion polls are saying that it is a tight race. 

Such a long night happened in 2000 when votes were recounted in many parts after the contest between incumbent Republican President George W Bush and his Democratic challenger Al Gore. That election was ultimately settled by the US Supreme Court, in favour of Bush.

In the 2020 election, battleground states of Pennsylvania and Nevada were called four days after election day, while it took more than a week for Arizona.

A delay in results, along with possible instigations by Trump and his surrogates, could rile up his supporters. That could lead to protests, counterprotests, violence and arrests.

Will Americans keep calm this election season?

Only hours left to know.

(With inputs from agencies)