The ultimate frenemies? From ‘big, fat hug’ to bitter trade wars, analysing a decade of Trump-Xi rollercoaster equation

US President Donald Trump expects a "big, fat hug" from his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, when they meet in Beijing this week. The US President will be in China from May 13 to 15. The meeting will be the seventh Trump and Xi face-to-face meeting, and the first trip by a US leader to China in 2017. The three-day summit is expected to focus on the US-Israel war on Iran, trade and the status of Taiwan.

Trump and Xi’s relationship has always been a curious blend of personal flattery and strategic hostility, warm handshakes often followed by economic warfare. Let's take a look at the Trump-Xi equation over the years.

2017: First meeting to first shots fired in US-China trade war

The two leaders first met at Trump's private Mar-a-Lago resort on April 6, 2017, during the Republicans' first term. The meeting was offset by Trump breaking decades of diplomatic precedent set in 1979 when Washington cut off relations with Taiwan and talking to the nation's President Tsai Ing-wen for a congratulatory phone call. However, despite that, the two appeared to build a personal rapport and later Trump claimed that they had made "tremendous progress" towards improving US-China relations.

In July 2017, the two leaders met in Hamburg, Germany, on the sidelines of the G20 summit, where they discussed North Korea’s nuclear programme and economic ties. Just a month later, the US fired the first shot in the US-China trade war by launching an investigation into alleged theft of US intellectual property and finally invoking Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. With this, the White House laid the groundwork to impose punitive tariffs on China.

By November that year, Trump was in Beijing enjoying full state-visit pageantry, from the Forbidden City to lavish banquets, while touting major business deals. Then came tariffs.

Trade war years: smiles, then sanctions

From Hamburg to Buenos Aires (Dec 2018) to Osaka (June 2019), Trump and Xi repeatedly met on the sidelines of global summits, often using personal diplomacy to cool tensions temporarily.

But beneath each handshake, the trade war deepened. Trump launched Section 301 investigations, imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions in Chinese goods, and targeted firms like Huawei and ZTE. China retaliated in kind, imposing tariffs on $110bn worth of US goods.

Eventually, months later, the two nations signed a “phase one” trade deal, under which Washington agreed to roll back several tariffs, and Beijing pledged to buy $200bn worth of US goods and services. However, the trade deal never fully delivered on its promises, and China did not meet its purchase commitments during the required timeframe.

2025: Reunion after six years

Their October 2025 meeting in Busan marked their first in-person encounter in six years, coming after tariff levels between both countries had exploded past 100 per cent - the US had imposed 145 per cent duties on China, in return, Beijing imposed 125 per cent duties on Washington. That summit produced a one-year truce, a pause in the trade war.

2026: Why Beijing matters now

This week’s summit comes at an even more turbulent moment as the US-Israel-Iran conflict, Taiwan tensions, technology restrictions, and global supply chain stress all raise the stakes far beyond trade deficits.

Trump may joke about hugs, but this meeting could shape whether the US-China rivalry stabilises, worsens, or simply gets postponed again. Notably, history suggests one thing clearly: when it comes to Trump and Xi, personal chemistry has never guaranteed political calm. Sometimes, it has simply bought time before the next fight.