India's intervention made Putin abandon use of nuclear weapon in Ukraine: Report

India may have played a key role in discouraging Russia from launching a nuclear attack inside Ukraine in 2022 when President Vladimir Putin’s forces faced ‘one setback after another’ on the battlefield, according to a CNN report that cites US officials.

The reportsaid intervention from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and nations like China may have forced Putin to drop the nuclear plans.

Alarming intelligence

In 2022, US officials grew worried that Russia might resort to using a tactical nuclear weapon in the face of growing challenges in Ukraine. It was when Ukrainian forces were advancing on Russian-occupied Kherson in the south. As per the report, Russia became concerned that its forces in Kherson could be surrounded and devastated if Ukrainian troops kept advancing.

The US officials believed that such a heavy loss could trigger the Kremlin to resort to using non-conventional/nuclear means.

“If significant numbers of Russian forces were ­overrun —​­ if their lives were shattered as such —​­ that was a sort of precursor to a potential threat directly to Russian territory or the Russian state,” a senior US official was quoted as saying by CNN.

“In Kherson at that time there were increasing signs that Russian lines could collapse. Tens of thousands of Russian troops were potentially vulnerable,” the official added.

In addition to this theory, the Biden administration had access to new, sensitive intelligence—based on analysis, several indicators and developments—that pointed towards the possibility of a nuclear Armageddon.

Russia’s ‘Dirty Bomb’ theory

During the same period, Russian loyalists and propagandists started talking about the possibility of Ukraine using a ‘dirty bomb’ against Russia.

Western officials believed it was a false flag story that Russia could use as cover for launching its own nuclear attack.

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In October 2022, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly made a series of phone calls to defence officials in the US, the UK, France and Turkey, telling them that the Kremlin was “concerned about possible provocations by Kyiv involving the use of a dirty bomb.”

The US meanwhile started working with its allies to develop contingency plans and warn Russia about potential consequences.

Role of India and China

As per US officials, help was also sought from non-allies like India and China.

US officials say intervention from PM Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping helped avert a nuclear disaster in Ukraine.

“I think we believe showing the international community the concern about this, particularly the concern from key countries for Russia and the Global South, was also a helpful, persuasive factor and showed them what the cost of all this could be,” a US official said.

“I think the fact that we know China weighed in, India weighed in, others weighed in, may have had some effect on their thinking. I can’t demonstrate this positively, but I think that’s our assessment,” a second official was quoted as saying.