Professor, who accurately predicted every US election since 1984, says Biden will beat Trump

WION Web Team Washington, DC, United States of America Aug 09, 2020, 12.15 PM(IST)

Trump and Biden Photograph:( AFP )

Story highlights

American University Professor Allan Lichtman is famous for accurately predicting the winner of every US presidential election since 1984, and according to him, this year, Joe Biden will defeat the incumbent president, Donald Trump.

The historian, who has the knack of accurately predicting the future, has issued his verdict for 2020.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman is famous for accurately predicting the winner of every US presidential election since 1984, and according to him, this year, Joe Biden will defeat the incumbent president, Donald Trump.

Lichtman uses a system, he created of 13 "keys", which decides who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Trump would be the next president. 

Surprisingly, he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. He now foresees a Biden victory in November.

"The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House," Lichtman says in a New York Times video op-ed released on Wednesday and in an interview with CNN released on Saturday.

The "13 keys" in his system include factors such as the economy, incumbency, social unrest and scandals, as well as the candidates' personal charisma.

Lichtman, however, considers it as a close contest, and notes that there are extraordinary factors that could still alter the outcome. According to his system, seven of the 13 keys favour Biden and six favour Trump.

Lichtman says Biden has the edge, "in light of the coronavirus pandemic and the national movement of protests against police brutality and systematic racism."

Lichtman has used the key system to forecast the winner of each race since Ronald Reagan's reelection victory in 1984. 

The only one time there was a lapse in his judgement was back in 2000. He has predicted that Al Gore would win the election. Gore won the popular vote, but lost the presidency to George W Bush after the Supreme Court ruled to stop the recount for Florida's electoral votes. Lichtman still stands by validity of his prediction.