Polling 'Nostradamus', who predicted win of Kamala Harris in US elections, says ‘October surprise’ will not...
File image of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and her Republican challenger Donald Trump.
Historian Allan Lichtman, who is also known as polling 'Nostradamus', said that he will not revisit his predictions about Democratic nominee Kamala Harris defeating her Republican challengerDonald Trump in the November elections in the United States because of the "so-called" October surprise.
Since 1984, the 77-year-old American University professor, who created his own election model, has made the right prediction regarding every presidential winner.
In September, the polling Nostradamus predicted that Harris ticked all the boxes of critical objectives for the win and said that she would defeat Trump.
The professor has now said that any sort of news eventbetween now and November 5 will not change his prediction.
"One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise. I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign," said the polling Nostradamus.
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According to Lichtman, the "keys" are the 13 categories that he uses for assessing the winning chances of each candidate contesting the elections.
In September, he said that Harris enjoyed an advantage in eight keys while Trump led only three of them.
What is 'October surprise'?
Historically, an October surprise means a significant news event which happens in the last weeks of a presidential campaign and sometimes has a major impact on the elections.
Watch:US Elections 2024: Oil Moguls Emerge As Trump's Key Cash Source
In recent years, a notorious “October surprise” came just a month before the 2016 US election when the Washington Post got a leaked “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump was shown making shocking remarks regarding how he treats women.
“I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything… Grab ’em by the p—y. You can do anything,”Trump was heard saying to TV host Billy Bushin the 2005 clip.
However, as was predicted by Lichtman using his keys system, Trump still won the election.
Lichtman said that in the last 40 years, he has never changed his prediction and he will stick to his forecast of a Harris win even this time.
(With inputs from agencies)