PEACEMAKER or PROXY? What will be Iran's 'friend' Russia's role after Trump attacked Iranian nuclear sites to help Israel

In a major escalation of tensions in West Asia, the US bombed three nuclear sites - Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan - in Iran and warned the Islamic Republic of more "precision strikes" if it did not end its conflict with Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised US President Donald Trump's "bold decision." The Russian foreign ministry in a statement "strongly condemned" the United States' bombings of nuclear sites in Iran, calling the attacks "irresponsible" and a "gross violation of international law". Russia had earlier appealed to Israel to show restraint in the crisis with Iran after it launched Operation Rising Lion on June 13. Russia had then backed Tehran, saying it is exercising its right to self-defence. Now, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that he will visit Moscow tomorrow and hold “serious consultations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin. So, is it Russia's time to act as negotiator?

Putin the peacemaker?

Before the US strikes, Russian President Vladimir Putin had hinted that he was in talks with Israel and Iran as the war between the two nations escalated. Putin, during his meeting with senior news leaders of international news agencies in St. Petersburg, had said that Russia had shared proposals with Israel, Iran and the US to de-escalate the situation in the West Asia region. Putin had also confirmed that Iran has not asked about military aid amid the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Putin said, “We are not imposing anything on anyone; we are simply talking about how we see a possible way out of the situation,” he said. “But the decision, of course, is up to the political leadership of all these countries, primarily Iran and Israel.”

Though, Moscow has recognised the opportunity to play a significant role in breaking the diplomatic ice with Washington, analysts believe that it is highly unlikely that Russia can be a “promising negotiator.” Siddhant Kishore, a Washington-based national security analyst, said, “It is very unlikely that Russia can be a promising negotiator between Israel and Iran. So far, only the E3 nations (Germany, France, and UK) and Qatar have been able to drive negotiations between Israel and its adversaries. This is likely going to be a case in the ongoing negotiations too. Israel will not accept Russia’s proposal, despite America’s assurances — just because Russia is not viewed as a faithful negotiator in Tel Aviv.”

Kishore, who previously served as a member of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), also pointed out Russia failures regarding Ukraine war - a point highlighted by US President Donald Trump too. “Moreover, Russia has not been able to deliver on the dialogues with Ukraine over the past months, further complicating Russia’s position as an intermediary.”

Kremlin said ‘Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations’

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had previously stated that the US and Iran should "resolve all problems through negotiations" and that his government was “ready to do everything in its power to achieve this goal.” However, experts point out Russia's incapabilities in the past and the Ukraine war to hint that it might not be of a good help to Iran.

“Considering Russia’s own conflict with Ukraine, it remains doubtful if Moscow could broker a peace or ceasefire between Israel and Iran. What tools Russia could use to de-escalate the conflict is a big question. In late 2015, Moscow intervened directly in the Syrian crisis through air support to the then-Assad regime, but the dynamics were different back then. Currently, Russia does not have similar leverage. Even its military support to Tehran remains doubtful as it is already involved in a war with Ukraine,” Alvite Ningthoujam, a scholar of West Asia at the School of International Studies (SIS), Symbiosis International University (SIU), Pune.

Ningthoujam stressed on Russia's main agenda under Putin in the current situation, “For Moscow, it’s main interest would be to see Washington keeping a safe distance from the Israel-Iran conflict, while at the same time hoping that the Trump administration would continue to remain blind-eyed to Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.”

Trump rejected Putin's peace offer

US President Donald Trump had rejected Putin’s offer to mediate a ceasefire between the two longstanding foes, telling him to focus on brokering his own peace deal with Ukraine first. “I spoke to Putin yesterday and he actually offered to help mediate,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday (June 18). “I said, ‘Do me a favour, mediate your own. Let’s mediate Russia first.’ I said, ‘Vladimir, let’s mediate Russia first. You can worry about this later,” he added.

Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Putin called this morning to very nicely wish me a Happy Birthday, but to more importantly, talk about Iran, a country he knows very well.”

Iran says 'Russia is a friend"

Addressing a press conference in Istanbul after a US strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called Russia a friend and revealed that he will soon meet Putin, notably his first meeting with any head of state after America's involvement in conflict with Israel. “Russia is a friend of Iran and we enjoy a strategic partnership,” he told the news conference in Istanbul. “We always consult with each other and coordinate our positions,” Araghchi said, noting that Russia was one of the signatories of the JCPOA. “I will have serious consultations with the Russian president tomorrow, and we will continue to work with each other.”

Iranian diplomatic spokesman Esmail Baghai said last Monday, "Given the importance of these issues, it is quite possible that many parties will show goodwill and willingness to help in solving various problems."

Thus, the statements coming from Iran show that there may be optimism in seeing Moscow as a mediator as Tehran declared that it does not trust the West. Whether or not Putin's Russia will be able to rehabilitate itself in the global framework by posing as a peacemaker amid enormous criticism for its three-year aggression against Ukraine - we will know sooner than later.