Who will govern New Zealand? National and Labour neck and neck after election

New Zealand faces an anxious wait for a new government after an election that left the two main parties, National and Labour, level and neither able to govern alone. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told supporters in Auckland that National is once again the largest party in Parliament and has a pathway to forming the next government. He added that the result was too close to call and that compromise would be needed. He will run a caretaker government until the final count on November 27, and he says negotiations can only begin after that.

"National is once again the largest party in parliament, and we have a pathway to forming the next government," he told supporters in Auckland
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has not conceded. He said the country would not know the shape of the next government for a while, and that every vote matters and must be counted. He said the next Parliament would require everyone to work together, and promised Labour would "get straight to work" if it gets the chance to govern. Regardless of the outcome, he said Labour wasn't going anywhere.

Also Read: Eisenkot leads with 67 recommendations for PM, Herzog says mandate not guaranteed

Projected composition of the parliament

National and Labour finished close at about 29%, separated by only a few thousand votes. On election-night numbers, National, ACT and NZ First held a narrow majority in a record-sized Parliament. The left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori trailed on 56 seats. The ruling coalition consists of National, ACT and NZ First.

At the recent count, the projected seats are Labour 36, Greens 16, Te Pāti Māori 5, Opportunity 7, NZ First 12, ACT 13, National 42
The newcomer Opportunity Party (TOP), led by Qiulae Wong, crossed the 5% threshold with about 6%. Wong says she has both major leaders' phone numbers. He has actively positioned the centrist party as a neutral kingmaker, rejecting traditional left/right political divisions. But at the recent count, along with the TOP, they still fall short of the 66-seat majority mark of the 130-seat parliament.
National's night was bruised. Several senior MPs lost their seats, including Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, Speaker Gerry Brownlee and Melissa Lee. In his speech on Saturday, Luxon said 300,000 special votes were yet to be counted and could tip the balance. Those will be counted and known by November 27 and typically sway left. In the 2023 election, there were 600,000 special votes, and National dropped from 50 seats in the preliminary count to 48 seats.