Lopsided elections ahead? BNP’s boycott casts shadow on Bangladesh’s polls

As Bangladesh gears up for its national elections in January 2024, the absence of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party in the South Asian nation,is raising questions about the political dynamics of the country.

The BNP's decision to boycott the 12th parliamentary elections next year, accusing the ruling Awami League of trying to rig the polls, comes on the heels of a series of developments, including clashes during a BNP rally, resulting in the imprisonment of top brass of Opposition leaders by the government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Among those who were put behind bars was the 75-year-old BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, who had been leading the party in Khaleda Zia's absence.Jamaat-e-Islami party chief Shafiqur Rahman is already in jail and is facing charges of violence.

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BNP has been demanding to hold elections under a caretaker government but Hasina's party says it is against the law.

With the BNP opting out of the January elections, many are expressing concerns about the possibility of lopsided elections in Bangladesh, an argument which the Awami League was quick to brush off saying that many others are still in the race.

A total of 26 out of the 44 officially registered political parties have opted to participate in the elections while 14 parties have chosen to boycott.

Also Read |Bangladesh protesters set train on fire amid opposition strike, four killed

Bangladesh Parliament, also known as Jatiya Sangsad, has 350 seats.

Hasina's party has announced that it will field candidates for 263 seats in the 2024 elections. The Awami League has left 26 seats for the Jatiya Party, and six for its allies in the 14 Party Alliance.

Will Awami League be re-elected?

Former Indian Ambassador to Bangladesh, Veena Sikri, told WION that smaller parties may participate, but the absence of major players like BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, which the court barred from elections, appears to favour the Awami League's return to power.

"Smaller parties will get some seats, but they won't be in competition with the Awami League," notedAmbassador Sikri.

There are some reports which suggest that Islamist groups will be on the rise if the BNP opts out.

It points to the vacuum in the BNP leadership, with Khaleda Zia sick and her eldest son Tarique Rahman living in exile in London since September 2008. There is apprehension that Islamist groups might get more active in the party.

Former diplomat Sikri expressed concerns about the continuing pace of radicalisation in Bangladesh, despite efforts by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to address the issue. She noted that BNP and Jamaat e-Islami, the party that has contributed to the rise of radicalisation in Bangladesh, are on the same page.

The former diplomat highlighted that the senior leaders from Jamaat had earlier occupied significant positions within the then-BNP-led government.

While expressing dismay over the violence seething in Bangladesh by the opposition asa train was being set on fire Tuesday (Dec 19) killing four, including a mother and her son, the former ambassador said, "BNP should be urged to take part in the elections as creating a ruckus will only lead to loss of infrastructure. There is a need for mature elections."

"The process of radicalisation at the grassroots level is a big factor in Bangladesh, which is worrying," saidSikri.

"Sheikh Hasina has taken action against it and I would hope that such action would continue but I do not know how much effect did it have on the process of radicalisation. Because you do have the banned Islamist groups which are underground. The police know about it and they take action against these groups."

Recalling the Holey Artisan Bakery attack in Dhaka in 2016 where at least 22 people were reportedly killed by militants, Ambassador Sikri said, "After that, there was a lot of action."

"Students, farmers, and media should try to bring out the relationship between India and Bangladesh purely as a way of mutual benefit and not based on the role of religion and radicalisation. That should be completely kept out," the diplomat said.

Watch |2024 Bangladesh general election: Why is opposition calling for a boycott of the January election?

Speaking over the upcoming elections, the former Secretary (East) at the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Anil Wadhwa told WION, "BNP is not a serious challenger to the ruling party despite them being aggressive in organising mass protests. Hence a boycott and a combination of the boycott with the top leadership not being in contention is only going to help the ruling party."

"Sheikh Hasina seems more confident of winning the elections as the date of the hustings approaches. The people of Bangladesh would also not like to see the economy suffer and protests paralysethecountry."