Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah inch close to war: A look at five consequences

The Israeli military and Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been trading firefor more than eight months in parallel with the Gaza war that started in early October last year. Since the Israel-Hamas war began, there have been almost daily exchanges of fire between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, sparking fears of a full-blown war between the two.

The United Nations warned on Friday (June 21) it was concerned about the escalating tensions between Israel and Lebanon.

"One rash move - one miscalculation - could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border, and frankly, beyond imagination," he told reporters. "Let's be clear: The people of the region and the people of the world cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.

What will be the consequences if Israel and Hezbollah go to war:

1) A recent report by Politico said that a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah would be devastating, and the tremors would roil the entire Middle East and beyond. The report said that the warwould risk damaging the fragile US-led normalisation process that’s been painstakingly shaped to improve relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours.

2) The report added that such a warwould likely see Iran involved in the conflict in a bigger and much more open way than it was during the wars between Israel and Hezbollah in 1996 and 2006.

3) As the daily fighting between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, thousands of fighters from Iran-backed groups in the Middle East have agreed to come to Lebanon and join Hezbollah in its battle with Israel if there is an all-out war between the two factions, the news agency Associated Press reported. Some Lebanese and Iraqi groups backed by Iranhave already staged attacks on Israel and its allies since the Gaza war began.

4) Earlier this week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened that nowhere in Israel would be safe if a full-fledged war broke out. Hestressed that the war theatre would then expand well beyond the Levant to include Cyprus if Israel was allowed use of the island’s airport and facilities for logistics.

5) The Politico report also pointed out that neither Israel nor Hezbollah wouldfight with kid gloves. Both sidescan inflict terrible damage on the other.Hezbollahhas been firing rockets at Israel in solidarity with its Palestinian ally Hamas since the Gaza war erupted, forcing tens of thousands toflee homes in Israel.Tens of thousands of Lebanese have also fled their homes following Israeli strikes in south Lebanon.

(With inputs from agencies)