Iran-Israel war plunges Pakistan into a quagmire, poses a diplomatic challenge

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has presented a complex challenge before Pakistan, which is treading with extreme caution to safeguard its own security, stability, and longstanding relations with key ally nations.

The start of a full-fledged war across the border (Pakistan shares a 905 km-long border with Iran) has created a big dilemma for Islamabad, as on one hand, it has to speak for Iran being a Muslim nation, but on the other, it cannot afford to upset the United States, which has been its great benefactor for decades.

Expectedly, when Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed many Iranian generals and nuclear scientists, Pakistan was quick to condemn the Israeli action and stand in support of Iran, with which it had exchanged missile strikes in January 2024.

Islamabad called the Israeli strikes “blatant provocations” and violations of Iran’s territorial sovereignty.

As the conflict is intensifying, Islamabad is worried about its complex ties with Tehran and the prospect of the Israeli military’s aerial influence extending close to its border.

Pak-Iran ties marked by complexities

Pakistan and Iran accuse each other of harbouring armed groups responsible for cross-border attacks on their territories, and, in January 2024, Tehran launched missiles into Pakistan’s Balochistan province, claiming to target the separatist group Jaish al-Adl.

Pakistan retaliated within 24 hours, striking what it said were hideouts of Baloch separatists inside Iranian territory.

The brief escalation died down quickly, but Iran avoided taking the side of Pakistan during its military conflict with India last month.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has offered to help broker an end to the military hostilities between Iran and Israel.

However, Pakistan would not risk getting itself too involved when it is eager to rebuild bridges with the US, Israel’s closest ally.

Balochistan worries perturb Islamabad

Pakistan’s biggest concern is the likely fallout of the Iran-Israel conflict in its resource-rich, restive province of Balochistan, which also hosts the Gwadar port, central to the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), linking western China to the Arabian Sea.

Pakistan is worried that if the war escalates further, members of armed secessionist groups, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLA), who live in Iran’s border areas, might sneak into Pakistan through the porous border.

Another prospect roiling Islamabad is the fear of the influx of refugees from Iran with which it shared a long border.

Fears of growing Israeli aerial prowess in close vicinity

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim of the Israeli Air Force having control over Tehran’s skies has bothered Islamabad as much as it did Iran.

Pakistan will never want Israeli influence over the Iranian airspace to grow and creep towards its border, as it does not recognise Israel and considers it to be a sworn enemy.