How will scrapping the H-1B visa lottery affect India’s IT industry? Nasscom raises alarm

After the Donald Trump administration announced to replace its longstanding H-1B visa random lottery that has a wage-based selection mechanism, the Indian IT industry has flagged serious concerns. It stated that such a decision will impact smaller and mid-sized companies working in the US, which depend on academic calendars, product release cycles to recruit their employees, and client delivery schedules.

“A sudden shift to a wage-weighted model would introduce uncertainty, increase compliance complexity, and disrupt long-established workforce planning, particularly for smaller and mid-sized firms that align recruitment with academic calendars, client delivery schedules, and product release cycles,” Nasscom said in a statement, the Mint reported. It added that the process will prioritise employees with higher wages and better skills.

Replacement of the H-1B visa lottery would impact the US

Under its wage-weighted system, the change could lead to an aversion in international students from pursuing higher education in the US, as the new system will restrict entry-level job opportunities, which will weaken the talent base. The step will become a negative situation for the US, which will weaken the country's goals of strengthening competitiveness, driving innovation, and supporting higher education.

Nasscom added that the change would have a disproportionate impact on Indian IT professionals, given that a large share of technology workers in the US are Indian nationals. It also added that the proposed H-1B visa selection method raises key legal, economic and operational issues, marking a major shift from the existing lottery-based system.

The industry body called for a phased rollout of the wage-weighted model with adequate transition time, recommending that implementation be deferred until the FY28 lottery cycle. It also stated that it would allow employers sufficient time to adjust processes, meet compliance requirements and sustain confidence in the US talent and investment ecosystem.