From El Chapo to El Mencho: Mexico’s violence enters another chapter in its drug war history

Mexico has dealt one of its most significant blows to organised crime in recent years. In a large-scale military offensive ordered by President Claudia Sheinbaum, security forces targeted the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) on Sunday (February 23), killing its top leader, Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, widely known as El Mencho. Authorities said Oseguera Cervantes was wounded during the operation and later died while being transported by air to Mexico City. His death, however, was quickly followed by coordinated retaliation from the cartel, unleashing unrest across eight states.

Gunmen set up roadblocks, torched vehicles, and clashed with security personnel. Schools were closed, and flights to and from Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara were suspended amid security concerns. Reports of violence emerged from Jalisco, Michoacan, Guanajuato, Colima, Nayarit, Tamaulipas, Guerrero, and Nuevo Leon.

El Mencho, who had a $15 million US bounty on his head, co-founded CJNG and oversaw its transformation into one of Mexico’s most powerful criminal organisations. While his killing is being viewed as a strategic victory for the Sheinbaum administration, officials and analysts warn it could spark a new cycle of bloodshed. His death places him among the highest-profile cartel leaders eliminated since the capture of key figures from the Sinaloa Cartel, including Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman and Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada, both currently held in the United States.

Also Read: El Mencho death: Killing narcos ‘unlawful, fascist’, said Mexican President Sheinbaum once. What changed in the ‘hugs, not bullets’ policy?

Following El Chapo’s 2016 arrest, leadership of the Sinaloa Cartel reportedly shifted to his sons, Ivan Guzman Salazar, Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar, Joaquin Guzman Lopez, and Ovidio Guzman Lopez, often referred to as “Los Chapitos.” The US Drug Enforcement Administration has accused them of expanding and modernizing cartel operations. Joaquin Guzman Lopez was arrested in Texas in July 2024 after arriving alongside Zambada. His detention came months after Ovidio Guzman Lopez was taken into custody in January 2023. In December 2025, Joaquin Guzman Lopez pleaded guilty in a US court to major drug trafficking offenses, admitting involvement in coordinating the production and shipment of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine, marijuana, and fentanyl into the United States. Prosecutors alleged he helped lure Zambada onto a flight to the US as part of a deal with authorities.

Despite these setbacks, the Sinaloa Cartel remains active, with Ivan and Jesus Alfredo Guzman Salazar reportedly leading its operations and facing $10 million rewards each. El Mencho’s killing may also influence Mexico’s diplomatic standing. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pressed Mexico to intensify its campaign against cartels, at times threatening trade measures and floating the possibility of US military action inside Mexican territory. Against that backdrop, American officials have described the operation as a significant development for regional security.

Still, experts warn that dismantling cartel leadership often leads to violent reprisals. Vanda Felbab-Brown of the Brookings Institution has warned that criminal groups typically respond with targeted assassinations, bombings, and direct attacks on political and security figures. Cartels have previously demonstrated such tactics, including a 2020 assassination attempt on Omar Garcia Harfuch, now Mexico’s Secretary of Security under Sheinbaum.

Analysts say retaliation may also involve paralyzing infrastructure, blocking highways, disrupting trade corridors, and attacking police or military facilities. Sunday’s unrest, marked by widespread blockades and arson, suggests that such tactics are already unfolding. While the operation underscores Mexico’s renewed push against organized crime, it also signals a potentially volatile period ahead as cartels regroup and attempt to reassert control.