Why explosion in Poland, a NATO ally, is 'unlikely' to escalate war into Europe

For the first time since February 2022, a missile explosion in a Poland village, located well outside Russia and Ukraine-held territories, sparked global concerns that the war could spill across Europe. The explosion in Eastern Poland, which claimed two lives on Tuesday, stoked diplomatic furore at the now-concluded G20 summit in Indonesia's Bali, leading to schedule changes as leaders gathered to address what Ukraine said was anattack by Russia on a NATO ally.

Breaking: G20 day schedule changes amid Poland fallout. Scheduled events delayed by one hour. — Sidhant Sibal (@sidhant) November 16, 2022

The US President Joe Biden said that it is "unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it [missile that exploded in Poland] was fired from Russia."

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Poland's President Andrzej Duda said that early indications from country's investigations into Tuesday's explosion suggested that Ukrainian efforts to counter a Russian barrage on Tuesday had caused an "unfortunate accident" in Poland and not a direct attack on his country.

Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, also seconded the statements made by Joe Biden and Andrzej Duda, adding that the incident was "not Ukraine's fault".

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After accusing Russia for the missile explosion in Poland, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that his country was "clarifying all the facts" with Poland. The former still maintains stocks of former Soviet-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.

NATO's articles 4 and 5: What explosion in NATO-ally Poland means for Europe?

According to Article 4 of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), the signatories of the treaty, which also includes Poland since 1999, "will consult together", whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened.

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty considers an armed attack against one or more signatories as "an attack against them all". The Article 5 further states that if such an armed attack occurs, each of the signatories will assist the Party or Parties so attacked individually and in concert with the other Parties including the use of armed force.

As a NATO ally, Poland reserved the right to formally invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 of North Atlantic Treaty, if the country had found its territorial integrity threatened due to Tuesday's missile explosion in its territory.

Poland explosion a 'major provocation' but unlikely to escalate war into Europe

According to Brigadier (retired) Arun Sahgal, Executive Director, Forum for Strategic Initiative, the events following Tuesday's missile explosion in Poland are part of psychological warfare to put international pressure on Russia to eventually cease the fighting in Ukraine.

"An attempt is being made to put the onus of this attack on Russia, part of strategy to show it as irresponsible power," Brigadier (retd) Sahgal told WION.

But beyond the optics, the Tuesday's events are unlikely to escalate into spillage of war into Europe, "as West is aware either it was owing to misfiring by S-300 [missile-defence system owned by Ukraine] or accident."

"The US and Russia as also others are involved in back channel diplomacy to stop the fighting between two sides leading to eventual ceasefire," Brigadier (retd.) Arun Sahgal, who himself also is a member of many Track 1.5 and 2 diplomacy initiatives, told WION while pointing out the economic consequences of the war.

"NATO is doing strong posturing on behalf of the US, which wants to be seen as attempting to bring reconciliation."

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