Explained | Why 2024 Taiwan presidential poll matters for US-China relations

Taiwan is set to host the presidential election on January 13 next year. The election would help set the course for the relations between the United States and China for the years to come.Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.

In the run-up to the election, China stepped up military and political pressure to assert its claim of sovereignty. Elections in Taiwan have usually been dominated by voters' views on how the island should handle relations with China, a report by the news agency Bloomberg said in April.

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This election is also a litmus test of how voters are nervous about the current state of affairs in Taiwan and where they might lead.

The differing views on Taiwan

Relations between the US and China have been strained for years over issues ranging from technology to human rights, and Taiwan is a key flashpoint.Both countries have differing views on Taiwan. The island's current status has been in dispute since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. Since then, China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan, even though the island established a democracy.

China sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy" in which Washington recognised the Beijing-based People’s Republic as the “sole legal government of China” and ended formal diplomatic recognition of Taiwan — without clarifying America's position on the island’s sovereignty, Bloomberg reported.

Though US officials said that there is no change in the policy, President Joe Biden repeatedly said that his government would come to Taiwan’s defence if attacked.The next president of Taiwan will serve till 2027. By this year, the US estimates China wants its military to be capable of undertaking an attack on Taiwan.

Ely Ratner, who is Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs in the Biden administration, said on September 19 that the US was strengthening deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. Ratner said that Washington remained committed to the One China policy, which has helped preserve peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait for more than four decades.

However, he pointed out that China was pushing the envelope by waging a campaign of military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan. The top official also warned that a major conflict in the strait "would result in thousands of casualties and jeopardise more than $2 trillion in global economic activity, igniting a global economic depression."

In August last year, then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei which outraged China. In response, China launched one of the biggest military drills ever seen around the island.

In April this year, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited the US, which sparked shorter but intense military drills from China.

The top contenders and their stand on China

The top contenders for this year's presidential election in Taiwan are current Vice President William Lai, Hou Yu-Ih, Ko Wen-Je and Terry Gou. The contenders have called for talks with China.

Vice President Lai, a leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has repeatedly called for talks with China but has been rebuffed as Beijing views him as a separatist. "We don't want to be enemies, we can be friends. And we would love to see China enjoy democracy and freedom – just like us," Lai, who is leading the opinion poll, said in August.

"However, until China renounces the use of force against Taiwan, we must strengthen our military capacity," he added.

Hou Yu-Ih, a leader of Taiwan's main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) also said he would restart talks with China. The KMT traditionally favours close ties with China but strongly denies being pro-Beijing.

Ko Wen-Je is a leader of the Taiwan People's Party. A former Taipei mayor, Ko is catching up quickly with Lai in the frontrunner race. On Tuesday (Oct 24), Ko said that China should propose a new framework for engagement with Taiwan and explain what Beijing has to offer.

Meanwhile, Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of major Apple supplier Foxconn, is running as an independent candidate. Gou no longer runs Foxconn and has accused the DPP of taking Taiwan to the brink of war with China by its hostile policies and that only he, with his extensive business and personal contacts in China and the US, can maintain peace.

Foxconn made headlines last week after it was subjected to tax inspections by Chinese authorities. On Tuesday, Vice President Lai hit out at China over the Foxconn probe and said Beijing should cherish Taiwanese companies and not put pressure on them during an election.

"During an election, China does not need to put pressure on Taiwanese companies, demanding they declare a position, or even that they directly support a candidate they prefer," Lai said. He warned that Taiwanese companies will lose their confidence in China and if they feel scared will shift production elsewhere.

Ko Wen-Je, meanwhile, said that China should explain the probe, adding the biggest problem here was that Taiwan had no way to communicate with the mainland on behalf of Taiwanese companies.

(With inputs from agencies)

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