EXPLAINED: What if China invades Taiwan in 2026? The 5 things war game simulations by US think tank revealed

Taiwan has long been a point of contestation between US and China. Although US asserts that it adheres to the One-China policy, it has often hinted it will protect Taiwan if China invades the island nation. The potential impact of the Chinese action has now been highlighted by war game simulations carried out by a US think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Here is a complete list of the revelations which were made in the report.

1. Chinese, US and Taiwanese military would cripple

If indeed China invades Taiwan in 2026, it would cripple the US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries. Since the former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the self-acclaimed island, China has positioned itself to flaunt its military might. With the tensions gripping the South China sea, the Chinese invasion cannot be overruled. A report titled “The First Battle of the Next War” said, “The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members. Such losses would damage the US global position for many years." At the same time, there will be losses on the Chinese side. About 3,200 US troops would be killed in three weeks of battle while China would suffer about 10,000 troops killed and lose 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships, as per the report.

Add WION as a Preferred Source

2. Will the invasion succeed?

The US think tank, CSIS, ran this war game simulation a total of 24 times. This simulation answers the question of whether the invasion would succeed or not. According to the report, the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail to succeed, however, the report did not fall short to suggest that the war would have massive impact on all ends.

3. Taiwan economy would be in shambles, without electricity & basic needs

One of the points that the report made is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would result in a devastating economy for the island nation. Taiwan would be in shambles and would be left in the lurch without electricity and basic services. According to the report, the island's army would sustain around 3,500 losses, and its navy's 26 destroyers and frigates would be sunk.

4 Think tank does not imply Taiwan invasion is inevitable

Though the latest war game simulations suggested that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail while leaving economies in ruins, the think tank, however, said that this does not imply that Taiwan's invasion is "inevitable or even probable."

5. Taiwan must be fully armed before the war begins, unlike Ukraine war

According to the CSIS report, there were four constants which emerged during the war game simulations. The US would need long-range anti-ship missiles to hit the People Liberation Army (PLA) Navy from a distance and "en masse," Taiwan's ground forces must be able to contain Chinese, the US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations, Taiwan must be fully armed before the war begins, and the US must enter any conflict with its own forces without delay.

“Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Mark Cancian, the senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.