California, US

Since the United States and the United Kingdom unveiled their plans to provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines on Monday (March 13), it has sparked a debate around proliferation of nuclear weapons. The announcement made in San Diego, US, was the first time that a loophole in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was used to transfer fissile material and nuclear technology from a nuclear weapons state to a non-weapons state, reported the Guardian.

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What is the AUKUS deal?

Under the AUKUS mechanism, which is short for Australia, UK, and US, the three countries made a deal by which Canberra would acquire eight nuclear-powered submarines with Washington and Britain’s assistance. The plan is set to cost Australia up to $245 billion by 2055, said a report by Reuters on Tuesday, citing a defence official. 

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The announcement was made at a US Naval base in San Diego, California by US President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak  after 18 months of talks. 

What will happen as part of this deal?

In a joint statement by the three nations, a phased approach to deliver the nuclear-powered subs to Australia at the earliest possible date was outlined, each of which is “based on mutual commitments from each nation”. 

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Phase 1

At the beginning of 2023, Australian military and civilian personnel will be embedded with the US Navy and the British Royal Navy as well as their submarine industrial bases to accelerate the training of Australian personnel. The US plans to increase SSN (submersible ship nuclear, the formal name for submarine vessels) port visits to Australia, where the sailors from the two countries will participate in training and development. On the other hand, the UK will increase visits to Australia in early 2026. 

Phase 2

The US will deploy four Virginia-class boats to HMAS Stirling, at a naval port near Perth, over four years, starting in 2027 while Britain will also deploy one of their Astute-class submarines after a few years. This would be done to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system for SSN capability. 

Phase 3 

By the early 2030s, the US intends to sell three Virginia-class submarines to Australia with a potential option for two more if required. However, the decision would require Congressional approval. 

Phase 4

The UK will deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the Royal Navy by the late 2030s, as a part of the deal. While Australia will deliver the first SSN-AUKUS made in Canberra to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s. 

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The SSN-AUKUS will be a combination of UK submarine design and US defence technology. Both Australia and Britain intend to build nuclear-powered subs in their domestic shipyards before the end of this decade. Meanwhile, Canberra is set to begin the construction of the submarines in South Australia’s Osborne as early as this year. 

Why now?

The security agreement announced in 2021 by the three countries is seen as a way to counter China’s growing military presence in the Indo-Pacific region including the South China Sea. Reports suggest that Australia is convinced that it also requires to strengthen its navy which includes having submarines capable of operating far from their base to act as a deterrent and used in the event of a conflict. 

“The AUKUS agreement we confirm here in San Diego represents the biggest single investment in Australia’s defence capability in our history, strengthening Australia’s national security and stability in our region,” the Australian PM said during the announcement in the US. 

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The nuclear-powered subs may also strengthen the Australian Navy as they have a distinct advantage over the diesel-electric boats which are a part of the current fleet. Since nuclear submarines generate their own energy source they can leave the port and stay underwater for weeks undetected. 

What is NPT?

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly referred to as NPT, was a landmark international deal signed by a total of 191 countries out of which five are nuclear-weapon states in 1968. According to the United Nations, the objective of this treaty is to “prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.” The NPT also recognises the US, Russia, China, the UK and France as “weapons states” all of which also have nuclear-powered subs. 

What is the cause of concern?

According to a report by the Guardian, there is a loophole in paragraph 14 of the NPT which has been used to transfer fissile material and nuclear technology from a nuclear weapons state to a non-weapons state. Additionally, fissile material used for non-explosive military purposes like naval propulsion, are also exempted from inspections and monitoring by the UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as per the treaty. 

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This has sparked fears among arms control experts as it sets a precedent which would potentially be used by some countries to hide highly enriched uranium or plutonium from oversight. Notably, AUKUS will be the first time that the US will share its nuclear-propulsion technology after it did so with the UK in the 1950s. 

However, Biden has repeatedly stressed that the submarines are “nuclear-powered, not nuclear-armed” and that “Australia is a proud non-nuclear weapons state and it’s committed to stay that way.” 

International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the Nobel peace prize winner of 2017, said that Australia’s decision to procure and build nuclear-powered submarines poses a significant proliferation risk as well as could be seen as a precursor to Canberra acquiring nuclear weapons someday, reported the Guardian. 

The IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Tuesday, “Ultimately, the agency must ensure that no proliferation risks will emanate from this project” in the context of the AUKUS deal. He added that Australia will also have to make “an arrangement” with the UN watchdog to use the aforementioned nuclear material. 

“This process involves serious legal and complex technical matters,” said Grossi.

In the joint statement, the leaders of the three nations also said that they are “committed to set the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard. The plan we announce today delivers on this commitment and reflects our longstanding leadership in, and respect for, the global nuclear non-proliferation regime.” 

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It added, that they will continue to consult with the IAEA to “develop a non-proliferation approach that sets the strongest precedent for the acquisition of a nuclear-powered submarine capability.”

China and Russia weigh in on the issue

On Tuesday, China said that the three countries are treading a “path of error and danger” following the announcement. The Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that UK, US and Australia “for the sake of their own geopolitical interests, completely disregard the concerns of the international communities and are walking further and further down the path of error and danger”. 

He also went on to accuse them of inciting an arms race and that the deal was “a typical case of Cold War mentality” and that the sale of the nuclear-powered subs “constitutes a severe nuclear proliferation risk, and violates the aims and objectives of the Non-Proliferation Treaty”. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, “There are a lot of questions here related to the problem of non-proliferation. Here we need special transparency, and we need to answer the questions that arise.”

However, he did not elaborate on Russia’s concerns while China has argued that supplying nuclear-powered submarines to Australia amounts to an act of nuclear proliferation.

(With inputs from agencies) 

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