Is India’s monsoon changing? What monsoon 2026 reveals about climate trends | WION Decodes
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Is India’s monsoon changing? What monsoon 2026 reveals about climate trends | WION Decodes")
Representative image. Photograph: (Pexels)
Monsoon 2026 shows below-normal rains, delayed onset and extreme variability, highlighting a more erratic and climate-change-influenced monsoon pattern in India.
With a delayed southwest monsoon, 2026 is expected to deliver below-normal rains for India. India Meteorological Department (IMD) had earlier estimated rainfall at around 90–92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). June has already signalled a weaker monsoon for the country, recording nearly 40 per cent below normal rains, making it one of the driest June in more than a decade and the fifth driest since India began keeping records in 1901. This suggests the monsoon, which accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall, is not just getting weak but also increasingly erratic in its behaviour.
A delayed start and uneven distribution
This year has seen a delayed onset and fragmented progression of weather systems that result in the monsoon. Arriving late over Kerala, the monsoon stalled in central and western India before showing intermittent revival, which resulted in long dry spells with short bursts of heavy rain. This pattern is becoming more common in recent years.
Meteorologists note that this “start-stop” behaviour is as significant as total rainfall deficits, because it disrupts soil moisture buildup and agricultural planning.
Why is monsoon important for India?
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The southwest monsoon accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall. This seasonal rainfall supports the agriculture sector of the nation. According to government data, nearly 64 per cent of Indians rely on agriculture for their livelihood. Yet only around 55 per cent of the country’s net sown area is covered by irrigation infrastructure, leaving a large portion of farmland dependent on rainfall. This makes the success or failure of the monsoon a major factor in crop production.
Agriculture feels the early shock
The weak and uneven rainfall impacts India’s kharif sowing season. As per early estimates, there is a significant drop in acreage for major crops like rice, soybean, cotton, and maize. In some regions, soybean sowing has drastically fallen compared to last year, while rice cultivation has also slowed due to delayed rainfall.
Only a few crops such as sugarcane, which are supported by irrigation, have shown relative stability. The early disruption of farming activities highlights how sensitive India’s agriculture remains to monsoon timing rather than just total rainfall.
Climate drivers behind the shift
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), climate change is a driving factor leading to unpredictable or inconsistent monsoon rainfall. While some regions experience intense rainfall in short periods, others face prolonged dry spells. Climate change is also resulting in extreme weather events like heavy rainfall, floods, heatwaves and droughts.
The changing weather patterns across the world have also resulted in El Nino, which occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal, weakening trade winds and altering global atmospheric circulation. An intense El Niño may weaken monsoons in India and affect crop production, and in turn, food prices. In the past, El Nino conditions have resulted in major droughts in India, including in 1982, 1987, 2002, 2009 and 2015.
A broader climate pattern emerging
According to long-term trends, the monsoon in India appears to be changing structurally. The distribution of seasonal rainfall is becoming more unequal, with fewer wet days and more intense rainfall episodes, even though the overall amount may not always decrease significantly.
Recent studies suggest a rise in variability of rainfall along with frequent alternations between dry spells and heavy downpours. This has also led to floods in urban areas in some regions as sudden heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage systems even during generally weak monsoon years.
Monsoon 2026 brings to light a developing reality: India's monsoon is not only getting weaker or stronger, but it is also becoming less predictable, more erratic, and more influenced by the dynamics of climate change.
