City killer asteroid can shoot meteorites like bullets at Earth in 2032. Who is at risk?

In the next seven years, Earth will have a close shave with two asteroids - Apophis and Asteroid YR4 2024. In 2029, 99942 Apophis will fly by at an eerily close distance and will be visible even to the naked eye. In 2032, YR4 2024 will also come near our planet, although it is estimated to hit our Moon. This event will generate so much debris that meteorites will come shooting towards Earth, possibly damaging satellites and even the space station. Both asteroids posed a massive scare right after being observed. When scientists discovered them, they were both on a trajectory that could have led them to crash into Earth. However, the latest calculations suggest that this might not happen after all.

Dinosaur killer asteroids visit every 10 million to 100 million years

However, even though Earth is predicted to have a close shave with the asteroids, is there a probability that a major disaster might still occur? An asteroid killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Could the next strike be around the corner? According to Chris Lintott, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Oxford, "there’s one of these every 10 million to 100 million years".

Also Read: The world’s largest space telescope finds 2,100 new asteroids. Know what else it can do

He told the Guardian that it might just be about "being in the wrong place at the wrong time." He said, “Most asteroids in the solar system exist in the asteroid belt, which is between Mars and Jupiter, but they become disrupted, usually by encounters with either of those planets, and they can move into orbits that cross the Earth.”

Four known asteroids same as dino-killer

Coming to an asteroid similar to the one that killed the dinosaurs, Colin Snodgrass, a professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, says, that it happens “not very often, but it is something that happens." However, he is hopeful that humans could potentially do something about them. He adds that there are four asteroids that fit into the category of "dino-killer space rock", but they are not anywhere near Earth.

Also Read: What are asteroids really made of: Rocks, metals or something more?

However, the smaller ones could be equally dangerous. For example, in Chelyabinsk, Russia, an asteroid the size of a house, around 20 metres across, exploded with the force of nearly 30 Hiroshima bombs. It caused extensive damage and injured hundreds of people. In the past 20 years, at least 556 asteroids and meteors have crashed into Earth. Recently, a meteor was seen over the southeastern United States and reportedly crashed into a house, breaking its roof and smashing the floor.

Asteroid impact with Moon can shoot meteorites towards Earth

Asteroid YR4 2024 had a 3.1 per cent chance of hitting Earth in 2032 after it was discovered earlier this year. Dubbed the "city-killer", the asteroid is not expected to hit Earth. However, it will crash into the Moon, as the probability of that happening has been increased to 4.3 per cent. If this happens, then a 174ft-220ft asteroid impact will generate 100,000,000 kilograms of debris that can come hurtling towards Earth. The meteorites can damage satellites, the International Space Station and endanger astronauts.

Also Read: Evil twin? Venus sheltering 'invisible' asteroids that can wipe off humanity with a minuscule change in course

So, there is a need to be prepared to tackle such a scenario. Besides, Apophis's close flyby also needs to be monitored. Scientists are watching for these asteroids regularly. A study revealed that Venus could be hiding several such rocks that we still cannot see. The recently unveiled Vera C Rubin Observatory in Chile found seven asteroids humans had not seen before that will come dangerously close to Earth. NASA and the European Space Agency have missions in the pipeline that will detect "asteroids and comets that may be potential hazards to Earth."

Meanwhile, the 2022 DART mission showed humans are capable of breaking apart an asteroid right from Earth. A small spacecraft crashed into Dimorphos, an asteroid that orbits a larger rock called Didymos. It was a success as the space rock broke apart, changing its shape and releasing so much debris that we might soon have a Didymos meteor shower.