WTO: AI may add 37% to global trade by 2040 if inclusive policies are adopted

AI is transforming almost everything nowadays. And it could could significantly change the way goods and services are traded worldwide. A new World Trade Organization (WTO) report released on Wednesday says AI could increase the value of global trade by 34-37 per cent by 2040 if supported by the right policies.

According to the World Trade Report, this growth could also lift the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 12-13 per cent, making AI a key driver of future economic expansion.

Deputy Director General of the WTO, Johanna Hill, said AI could become “a bright spot for trade in an increasingly complex trading environment.”

How AI could boost trade

The WTO report highlights that AI has the potential to lower trade costs, improve productivity, and make international trade faster and more efficient.

Reduced costs: AI can help businesses cut expenses in logistics, regulatory compliance, and communications.

Faster communication: AI-driven translation tools can make cross-border communication easier and cheaper, helping small businesses connect with global markets.

Export growth: Low-income countries could see their exports rise by up to 11 per cent, provided they invest in better digital infrastructure.

For example, an Indian handicraft seller could use AI-powered translation to reach buyers in Europe without language barriers, increasing sales and reducing costs.

Challenges and risks

While the opportunities are huge, the WTO warned that AI could also deepen economic divides if not managed carefully.

The report said, “Many workers, and even entire economies, could be left behind” without inclusive policies.

WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged governments to focus on:

Improving education and digital skills

Offering retraining programmes for workers

Strengthening social safety nets for those who lose jobs due to automation

She said, “AI could transform some jobs while replacing others. Managing this shift is crucial to ensure benefits are shared fairly.”

A call for fair global policies

To fully benefit from AI, the WTO stressed the need for predictable trade rules and lower tariffs on materials essential for AI technologies, such as semiconductors.

Global trade has faced disruptions in recent years, including higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have affected supply chains.

By reducing barriers and encouraging innovation, AI can create a fairer and more connected global economy.

AI could boost global trade and GDP dramatically by 2040, according to the WTO. However, without strong policies, it may increase inequality between nations and workers.

The report calls on governments to adopt inclusive strategies, reduce trade barriers, and invest in digital infrastructure so that all countries can benefit from the AI revolution.