Tesla cybercab vs Waymo: Who will win the us robotaxi race?

The race for robotaxis is heating up in the United States. Tesla Cybercab and Alphabet-owned Waymo are leading the charge, but they are taking very different paths. Their strategies show two competing visions of how the future of driverless transport might look.

Tesla’s rapid approach

Tesla began trialling its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2024. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised that by the end of this year in a X post, driverless Teslas could be available to‘Half the population of the U.S.’

Tesla’s technology relies mainly on cameras and artificial intelligence to mimic human driving. According to the company, this approach reduces the need for detailed maps and lengthy testing in every city. Musk told analysts earlier this year, ‘Once we can make it basically work in a few cities in America, we can make it work anywhere.’

Tesla believes this will allow it to expand much faster than competitors. Musk has even set a target of‘Millions of Teslas operating autonomously’ by next year. However, the vehicles are still in testing, and approvals in new states such as Arizona, Nevada and Florida are pending.

Waymo’s cautious strategy

Waymo, by contrast, has been testing autonomous ride-hailing for more than eight years. It launched its first trial service in Phoenix and now operates in parts of San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, Atlanta and Phoenix. Its services cover areas with about 3 per cent of the U.S. population.

Waymo’s method is slower but more detailed. The company maps each city thoroughly before launching. Vehicles are tested first with drivers at the wheel, then with employees as passengers, before finally opening to the public. According to Waymo product manager Aman Nalavade,We really need to understand the core ingredients of each of these cities. There is a lot of risk in doing this incorrectly.

Waymo relies on sensors, high-definition maps and step-by-step decision-making in its AI. This makes it safer in the short term, analysts say, but also harder to scale quickly.

Investors and risks

Many investors are betting on Tesla’s faster growth. Morningstar analysts (March 2024 report) projected that Tesla may launch fully autonomous robotaxis by 2028 and eventually surpass Waymo’s market share. But they also expect Waymo to ramp up more quickly in the near term because of its tested technology.

Tesla faces pressure as its core electric vehicle sales have slowed, particularly in Europe. The robotaxi project could become a vital new revenue stream if it succeeds.

Waymo, meanwhile, has faced setbacks too. In Austin, police recorded cases where its vehicles blocked traffic or ignored signals. Authorities have issued citations to the company’s cars this year. Waymo said it takes such feedback seriously and is working with officials to improve its technology.