All eyes on Nepal as new PM likely to take charge

Nepal's political landscape is witnessing yet another twist as Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda'faces the fifthround of the floor test on Friday (Jul 12), with a possible defeat.

In the 275-member lower house, PM Dahal currently holds only the support of 63 lawmakers, falling short of the required 138-seat majority.

This turmoil in Kathmandu arose after the crucial ally, the CPN UML party, withdrew its support from the Prachanda-led government, pushing it into the minority.

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The CPN-Maoist Centre party, led by Dahal, holds only 32 seats. Several of his coalition members have left him to join the NC-CPN-UML administration, further compounding his setbacks.

He currently only has support from two political groups, totalling 63 seats: the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which has 21 seats, and the CPN-US which holds10 seats.

Nepal's political unrest continues to pose a problem. Just four months after forming a coalition with the ruling CPN-MC to form a government, the CPN-UML and its former rival, the Nepali Congress, agreed to share power in order to create a "national consensus government" at midnight on July 1.

Given the current numbers, it seems unlikely that Prime Minister Dahal would win this floor test.

President Ram Chandra Poudel would then issue a call to the parties to emerge with a majority and establish a new government. It is expected that KP Sharma Oli will prove his majority and provide the signatures of the MPs who support him.

Oli, CPN-UML chair with 78 seats is likely to lead another coalition government with the Nepali Congress, which has89 seats, as his key ally.

Many other small fringe parties have extended their support to the Oli-led government.

Prachanda had earlier announced to take the floor test rather than resign, as persisted by CPN-UML and Nepali Congress leaders.

As per the July 1 power-sharing deal, The CPN-UML's Oli and the NC's Sher Bahadur Deuba will alternate as prime ministers for 18 months each until the next general election in 2027.

The allocation of ministerial portfolios between the NC and CPN-UML has been agreed upon; the NC will oversee ten ministries, and the CPN-UML will oversee nine.

A few significant ministerial positions are anticipated to be taken over by Congress members: Ramesh Lekhak for the Home Ministry, Arzu Deuba Rana for the Foreign Ministry, Gagan Thapa for either the Health and Population Ministry or the Education, Science, and Technology Ministry, and Binod Chaudhary for the Energy, Water Resources, and Irrigation Ministry.

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As for the finance ministry, the UML will appoint Bishnu Poudel as the minister.

The government is expected to face several challenges. In terms of geopolitics, there is anticipation that Oli will seek to restore diplomatic ties with China and India, the neighbouring countries.

The upcoming administration's top priorities on the domestic front will be rewriting the nation's constitution, examining its economic plans, and altering the electoral process.