NASA scientist estimates 34,000 Punjab-Haryana farm fires, nearly 8 times official count

Delhi-NCR’s annual battle with toxic winter air is intensifying, with stubble burning in neighbouring Punjab and Haryana once again under scrutiny as a source of pollution. But the scale of farm fires this season may be significantly higher than official figures indicate. While government agencies have recorded 4,459 incidents in Punjab, satellite-based calculations by a scientist associated with NASA suggest that as many as 34,000 fires may have occurred across Punjab and Haryana between October 1 and November 9.

Dr Hiren Jethva, an aerosol remote sensing scientist associated with Morgan State University and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Centre, made the estimate using satellite observations.

Why are satellite figures different?

Jethva believes the gap is partly linked to changes in the timing of stubble burning. Farmers have increasingly shifted the hours at which they set fire to crop residue, making some fires harder for satellites traditionally used by government agencies to detect.

Speaking to NDTV on November 5, he said his assessment had identified 27,000 fires in Punjab between October 1 and November 5.

Explaining the methodology, Jethva said the Aqua MODIS satellite now passes over Punjab and north India at around 4 pm, instead of its earlier 1.30 pm schedule. Its observations are then converted into the higher-resolution VIIRS fire dataset.

What do official records show?

The CAQM recorded 4,459 incidents in Punjab up to November 8. Inspections at 2,998 locations confirmed stubble burning at 1,310 sites.

Authorities imposed environmental compensation of Rs 62.55 lakh in 1,228 cases, recovering Rs 32.60 lakh so far. Tarn Taran reported the highest number of incidents at 654, followed by Ferozepur with 592, Sangrur with 488 and Bathinda with 406.

The difference between the official count and Jethva’s estimate highlights a challenge in measuring farm fires. If a significant number go undetected, the reported figures may not reflect the full scale of seasonal crop-residue burning.