Scientists in New Zealand invent a warning system that predicts volcanic eruptions

Scientists in New Zealand claim to have invented a warning system which will effectively predict volcanic eruptions to prevent loss of life.

A volcanic blast on White Island in 2019 killed 21 people, for there was no predictivewarning system in place.

"Early warning"

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The research behind the mechanism says that it is able to track and predict seismic activity before a potential eruption takes place.

In conversation with the Guardian, the University of Auckland researchers Dempsey and Cronin claimed that had this “early warning” system been in place last year when the tragedy occurred on White Island, red flags would have been raised “16 hours before the volcano’s deadly eruption”.

The country already has a series of monitoring tools, namely the one operated by GNS Science and called “The Geonet”, which measures the movements and tremors on earth.

However, it is a log system which collects and collates data from thousands of earthquakes, without offering prediction.

Dempsey and Cronin claim to have applied data from the past to set up “machine learning algorithms”, which lets them spot patterns leading up to and after the eruptions.

For instance, they claimed that the 2019 eruption happened after 17 hours of seismic activity, and hence could have been avoided by ringing alarm bells.

A pressure cooker? Kind of!

According to them, this began with a “strong four-hour burst of seismic activity”, which caused “magmatic fluid” to rise up and to creature pressure on the gas and water which was trapped in the rock.

Comparing it to a pressure cooker lid blasting off, they said this is what led to the eruption in the end.They also claimed that a similar pattern of seismic signals and activity was recorded in August 2013, and before other two similar eruptions in 2012.

Even though the system faces its own loopholes and drawbacks, the researchers are confident that four out of five times, it will successfully contain an eruption, especially large ones along the lines of the one in 2019.

They added that the warnings would require people to avoid the area altogether and desert it for a month every year.In a bid to make the system operational and ready to save lives, the two researchers are now working with GNS Science. Additionally, the data and software is open source, offering people the chance to offer improvement updates.

In the aftermath of the White Island tragedy in December last year, tourists have stopped visiting the island altogether, clubbed with coronavirus fears.

The research is set to be published in Nature Communications this week. New Zealand and surrounding regions are highly susceptible to volcanic eruptions, putting many lives at risk.