Scientist says THIS dark comet could be a 38-year-old human probe - What Avi Loeb told us

Harvard scientist Avi Loeb has proposed that the dark comet 1998 KY26 could actually be the failed Soviet Union spacecraft Phobos 1. In his new paper, Loeb presents evidence to back this claim. Working alongside Adam Hibberd, Adam Crowl, and Carlos Olea, he states that instead of a dark comet, 1998 KY26 could actually be technological in origin. In fact, it took off from Earth in 1988, nearly 40 years ago. In the paper, the researchers list six reasons to cement their claim that it is not a dark comet but actually Phobos 1, the Russian mission to Mars, which could not make it to the Red Planet. Loeb told WION in an email, “The dark comet is likely the entire Phobos 1 spacecraft.”

What is a dark comet?

Dark comets are considered hybrids between comets and asteroids. Even though they display significant non-gravitational accelerations, there is no outgassing involved, and there is no tail or coma either. At least 14 bodies have so far been identified as dark comets.

What Loeb's paper suggests

The professor wrote in his blog that 1998 KY26 is most likely a "sturdy monolithic object," as suggested by its high reflectance, its size and an exceedingly short rotation period. If it were merely a rubble pile, it would have broken apart from the associated centrifugal force, he says. It is possible that it is technological in origin, "potentially a relic of a historical Russian mission to Mars, the Phobos 1 probe".

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What went wrong with Phobos 1?

The spacecraft was intended to study Mars and its moon Phobos. It was expected to take 200 days to reach its position. But a faulty command led to the mission being cut short. "On September2, 1988, Phobos 1 stopped transmitting signals towardsEarth. This was traced to a faulty key command that was sent unintentionally by a technician on August28 from ground control in Yevpatoria, leaving out a single hyphen in one of the keyed commands," Loeb told WION. "This deactivated the attitude thrusters,causing the spacecraft to lose the lock of its solar arrays on the Sun, depleting its batteries," he added.

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Why 1998 KY26 could be Phobos 1?

Loeb and his team present six reasons why this is possible. Orbits of Phobos 1 and 1998 KY26 are similar; they "converge and are statistically compatible". The second proof is that the "difference between these two orbits is compatible energetically with the overall velocity thrust (∆V) envelope available to Phobos 1." This means that, assuming it is the spacecraft Phobos 1, it would have enough fuel and engine power to transition from the first orbit to the second orbit. "There is a historical record in support of the hypothesis that a propulsive velocity thrust (∆V) was delivered shortly after loss of mission. The Phobos 1 mission was lost early on in the probe’s transit to Mars, enabling a large ∆V capability," the next two points read.

The physical properties of the dark comet 1998 KY26 - small size (10 metres), high albedo (the shiny appearance) and unusually large spin - also support their theory. The object also appears to be "elongated", which he says is "expected" for Phobos 1.

When asked which are the strongest indications that this dark comet could be Phobos 1, he said, “The strongest support for the association of 1998 KY26 with Phobos 1 is the similarity of their orbits as well as the measured small size (10-meter scale), high reflectance (52%) and unusually large spin (5.4 minutes rotation period), which would break up a rubble pile asteroid.”

Japan to probe dark comet 1998 KY26

The Japanese Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) plans to study the dark comet with Hayabusa2, which is expected to land in 2031. It studied the asteroid 162173 Ryugu in 2018, brought samples back in 2020 and was sent to analyse 1998 KY26. With this mission, astronomers plan to learn about the nature of outgassing from a dark comet.