NASA's AI-powered model to sound alarm before solar storms, help avert damage to critical infrastructure

A new computer model that integrates artificial intelligence (AI) with NASA satellite data could sound the alarm for dangerous space weather, much like a tornado siren for life-threatening storms in America, according to NASA.

The model involves artificial intelligence (AI) to examine data from spacecraft observations of the solar wind, or the continuous stream of material from the Sun, and forecast the location of an impending solar storm anywhere on Earth with a 30 minute lead time. This might give people just enough time to prep for major solar storms and avoid serious damage to power systems and other critical infrastructure.

The Sun continuously releases solar material into space, both in the form of smaller, more intense bursts from solar eruptions and in a constant flow known as the "solar wind."

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It sometimes produces so-called geomagnetic storms when this solar material interacts with Earth's magnetic environment (also known as its "magnetosphere"). These magnetic storms can have mild to severe effects, but because technology is used increasingly in our everyday lives, their effects are becoming more disruptive.

The DAGGER model

As we approach the next "solar maximum," a peak in the Sun's 11-year activity cycle, which is predicted to occur somewhere in 2025, the probability of geomagnetic storms and their disastrous impacts on our society is rising.

Scientists used this information to create the DAGGER computer model, also known as Deep Learning Geomagnetic Perturbation, which can forecast geomagnetic disturbances 30 minutes in advance, globally.

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“With this AI, it is now possible to make rapid and accurate global predictions and inform decisions in the event of a solar storm, thereby minimizing – or even preventing – devastation to modern society,” said Vishal Upendran of the Inter-University Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics in India, who is the lead author of a paper about the DAGGER modelpublishedin the journal Space Weather.

Two geomagnetic storms that occurred in August 2011 and March 2015 were used by the DAGGER team to evaluate the model's potential. In each case, DAGGER was able to quickly and accurately forecast the storm's global implications.

With models like DAGGER, it's possible that solar storm sirens will one day sound an alarm at power plants and satellite control centres all over the world, just like tornado sirens do in towns and cities across America.

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