Major ocean current system may collapse as early as 2025 'with 95% certainty': Study

An ocean current system responsible for transporting heat from the tropics to the North Atlantic may shut down much earlier than previously thought, with potentially catastrophic consequences for Earth's climate.

Recent predictions indicate that an ocean current system, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), has been weakening as the earth continues to warm up. Despite this, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had previously stated that the complete shutdown of the AMOC was not expected to happen within this century.

Also watch |Gulf Stream Atlantic oceanic currents could collapse as early as 2025: Study

But a new study by a group of researchers from Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen has challenged the notion, suggesting that the AMOC could halt as early as 2025.

The findings were published on Tuesday (July 25) in the journal Nature Communications.

"Using advanced statistical tools and ocean temperature data from the last 150 years, the researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the Thermohaline Circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse – with 95 per cent certainty – between 2025 and 2095," the study said.

The most probable time for this collapse is estimated to be around 2057.

Though some climate scientists urge caution, pointing to the uncertainties in the data that could affect accuracy, the mere possibility of the AMOC shutting down so soon remains deeply concerning.

What does AMOC do?

The AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream, plays a crucial role in carrying heat away from the tropics.

What will happen without AMOC?

Without it, the tropics would experience rapid temperature increases and disruption of vital tropical rains, with severe impacts on the environments of regions such as South America, western Africa, India, and other parts of South Asia.

"Shutting down the AMOC can have very serious consequences for Earth's climate, for example, by changing how heat and precipitation are distributed globally. While a cooling of Europe may seem less severe as the globe as a whole becomes warmer and heat waves occur more frequently, this shutdown will contribute to an increased warming of the tropics, where rising temperatures have already given rise to challenging living conditions," professor Peter Ditlevsen from the Niels Bohr Institute said in an official statement.

Furthermore, northern and western Europe would lose its supply of warm water from the tropics, leading to increased storms and extremely cold winters in those areas. The absence of the Gulf Stream would also result in rising sea levels along the eastern seaboard of the United States.

WATCH WION LIVE HERE

You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.