New Delhi, India

The Atlantic Ocean's circulation has been moving towards a tipping point which is “bad news for the climate system and humanity”, according to a new study.

The scientists, who have carried out the research, said that they were shocked seeing the expected forecast speed of collapse once the tipping point is reached. However, they added that it was not yet possible to predict how soon the tipping point will be reached.

By using past data and computer models, the researchers have developed an early warning indicator to understand the breakdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), which is a vast system of ocean currents and is an important component in global climate regulation.

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The researchers found that Amoc is already moving towards an abrupt shift. This kind of change has not taken place in more than 10,000 years and would have dire implications for major parts of the world.

Amoc, which encompasses the Gulf Stream's parts and other powerful currents, is a major marine conveyor belt which contains carbon, nutrients and heat from the tropics towards the Arctic Circle, where it sinks and cools into the deep ocean.

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Churning of the Atlantic Ocean helps in distribution of energy

The churning of the Atlantic Ocean helps in the distribution of energy around the Earth and modulates the human-caused global heating's impact.

However, the system is getting eroded by the faster-than-expected melt-off of glaciers in Greenland and ice sheets in the Arctic Circle, which provides freshwater into the sea and causes obstruction in the sinking of warmer, saltier water from the south.

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Since 1950, Amoc has declined 15 per cent and has reached its weakest state in more than a millennium, as per previous research which prompted speculation regarding an approaching collapse.

Till now, there has been no consensus regarding how severe this is going to be. According to a study done last year, which was done on the basis of changes in sea surface temperatures, it was estimated that the tipping point can happen between 2025 and 2095.

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However, the UK Met Office stated that large and rapid changes in Amoc were “very unlikely” in the 21st century.

According to the paper, the results provided a “clear answer” regarding whether such an abrupt shift was possible.

“This is bad news for the climate system and humanity as up till now one could think that Amoc tipping was only a theoretical concept and tipping would disappear as soon as the full climate system, with all its additional feedbacks, was considered," it added.

(With inputs from agencies)