According to a new study, the chances of a falling piece of space debris striking an airplane are growing. While it has not happened yet, it may prove catastrophic in case it happens.

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Researchers from the University of British Columbia in Canada modelled the distribution of planes in the sky and compared them to records of uncontrolled rocket body reentries.

With the increase in deployment of satellites, like SpaceX's Starlink, and more planes flying in the sky, the risk of such a collision is increasing rapidly. Despite the existence of technology that can track falling space debris, it still remains a major concern.

“The highest-density regions, around major airports, have a 0.8 per cent chance per year of being affected by an uncontrolled reentry,” the researchers wrote in the paper that was published in Scientific Reports.

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“This rate rises to 26 per cent for larger but still busy areas of airspace, such as that found in the northeastern United States, northern Europe, or around major cities in the Asia-Pacific region.”

According to The Aerospace Corporation, the chances of a fatal plane collision with an object falling from space was near 1 in 100,000 in 2021.

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Even the smallest piece of a rocket or satellite falling may be enough to bring a plane down, risking passenger safety. As per the estimates, something as small as one gram may cause damage if it hits an aircraft’s windshield or engine.

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As the chances of such events grow, the probability that parts of airspace will remain closed may also increase. This will make the skies congested and lead to delay and cancellation of flights.

“This situation puts national authorities in a dilemma – to close airspace or not – with safety and economic implications either way,” write the researchers.

Identifying reentry paths of space debris is often challenging, implying that larger areas of airspace would require being shut down as a precaution. A similar thing happened with the Long March 5B rocket body in 2022.

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According to the researchers, the solution to this is more investment in controlled rocket reentry. While the technology allows it, less than 35 per cent of launches use it, leaving a burden of safety for the aviation industry.

Although efforts continue to improve safety inside and outside the Earth’s atmosphere, it requires buy-in from government agencies and private companies. 

“Over 2,300 rocket bodies are already in orbit and will eventually reenter in an uncontrolled manner,” wrote the researchers. “Airspace authorities will face the challenge of uncontrolled reentries for decades to come.”

(With inputs from agencies)