'Sudden decrease in river Chenab': Pakistan faces water crisis as Indus Waters Treaty remains in abeyance after Pahalgam terror attack

More than a month after India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, water levels in key rivers across Pakistan have fallen sharply, especially in Punjab province.

The latest data from Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) shows that the water flow in the Indus and Jhelum rivers has reduced significantly. However, it is the Chenab river’s “sudden decrease” that has hit Punjab the hardest.

According to IRSA figures from 2 June, total water availability in Punjab stands at 1,28,800 cusecs, a drop of 14,800 cusecs compared to the same day last year.

Punjab bracing for dry kharif season

The water shortfall is likely to have a direct effect on Pakistan’s summer crop cycle. The province of Punjab, where agriculture heavily depends on irrigation, is preparing for challenges as scorching temperatures combine with reduced water supply.

IRSA warned that the “sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortage in early kharif season”.

The water crisis comes at a time when the southwest monsoon is still four weeks away, making the situation even more difficult for farmers.

Water levels fall at major Pakistani dams

Pakistan has also recorded a drop in water levels at its two key dams. The Mangla dam, located on the Jhelum river, is reported to be below 50% of its storage capacity. Meanwhile, the Tarbela dam on the Indus river remains just slightly above the halfway mark.

As per Indian media reports, this drop coincides with India’s decision to restrict water flow from the rivers and suspend data sharing under the Indus Waters Treaty.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty divided control of six rivers between India and Pakistan. Under the agreement, the three eastern rivers, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, were assigned to India, while Pakistan was given rights over the three western rivers, Indus, Jhelum and Chenab.

The deal allowed India to use around 20% of the water from the western rivers, with Pakistan receiving the rest.

However, after a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam on 22 April that killed 26 people, including one Nepali national, India announced that it would halt its obligations under the treaty until Pakistan acknowledges its role and acts against cross-border terrorism.

Pakistan calls water suspension an ‘act of war’

Following India’s announcement, Pakistan warned that any move to block water flow would be considered an “act of war”. Since then, India has not resumed data sharing and continues to hold the treaty in abeyance.

As water levels keep falling and the monsoon remains weeks away, Pakistan faces growing concerns over the impact on agriculture, energy, and domestic supply in the coming months.