On February 18, 2025, Zambia’s Kafue River, a lifeline for agriculture, industry, and human sustenance, suffered a catastrophic environmental disaster. A tailings dam collapse at Sino-Metals Leach Zambia, a Chinese-owned copper mining facility, unleashed 50 million litres of acidic waste, laced with heavy metals, into the river. 

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An environmental catastrophe

The immediate fallout was devastating: mass fish deaths, agricultural destruction, and a severe water crisis affecting over 700,000 residents in Kitwe. Overnight, the river turned toxic, crippling the water supply to major urban and rural populations.

Facing mounting public outrage and fears of long-term contamination, the Zambian government ordered Sino-Metals to cease operations. In a bid to mitigate the damage, authorities deployed the air force to neutralise the acidity with lime while mandating alternative drinking water provisions for affected communities. However, these measures exposed a deeper crisis, Zambia’s regulatory vulnerabilities, its crippling economic dependence on China, and a broader geopolitical struggle over environmental and national sovereignty.

Zambia’s economic dependence on China

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For two decades, China has entrenched itself as Zambia’s largest creditor, holding over $4 billion of its external debt. This financial entanglement has placed Zambia in a cycle of economic dependency, limiting its ability to assert sovereignty over strategic industries. The copper sector, which constitutes 70% of Zambia’s export earnings, is at the heart of this relationship. Chinese companies now dominate Zambia’s mining industry, owning critical extraction and processing facilities.

While Chinese investment has fuelled job creation and infrastructure development, it has come at a steep price. Debt-servicing obligations have skyrocketed, forcing Zambia into debt restructuring negotiations that favour Chinese creditors. In exchange for financial support, China has secured vast mineral rights, allowing Chinese state-backed enterprises to operate with minimal regulatory oversight.

This economic arrangement has effectively eroded Zambia’s ability to enforce stringent environmental and labour regulations, setting the stage for disasters like the Kafue River spill.

Zambia’s debt crisis is emblematic of China’s strategic influence over its domestic policies. In 2020, Zambia defaulted on its external debt, setting off prolonged and arduous restructuring negotiations. While a 2023 agreement restructured $6.3 billion in foreign debt, China’s deliberate stalling of negotiations revealed its leverage over Zambia’s financial stability. Unlike Western creditors, China sought preferential treatment, ensuring that its loans were not subjected to the same restructuring terms as others. This prolonged Zambia’s economic uncertainty and further weakened its ability to challenge Chinese corporate practices.

A nation held hostage

Zambia’s reliance on Chinese capital has systematically weakened its regulatory institutions, particularly in environmental protection and labour rights enforcement. Successive Zambian administrations have struggled to challenge Chinese corporate interests, fearing economic retaliation.

This is evident in the lax enforcement of environmental laws, where Chinese mining companies frequently violate pollution regulations with little consequence. Regulatory bodies tasked with monitoring mining wastewater management are underfunded and politically constrained, often resorting to symbolic penalties rather than substantial enforcement. The Kafue River disaster exemplifies the consequences of this regulatory failure—an event that could have been prevented with adequate oversight and stricter compliance measures.

Debt restructuring has further exposed Zambia’s vulnerability to Chinese leverage. While Zambia managed to renegotiate $6.3 billion in external debt, China’s reluctance to align with Western creditors led to prolonged delays, reinforcing its hegemonic influence over Zambia’s financial stability. These negotiations illustrate how economic dependency translates into political subordination, undermining Zambia’s ability to impose stringent environmental and corporate governance reforms.

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Public backlash and rising tensions

The Kafue River disaster has intensified public resentment toward Chinese investments in Zambia. While Chinese firms have created jobs, they have also become synonymous with exploitative labour practices, environmental degradation, and economic neo-colonialism.

The growing anti-China sentiment in Zambia echoes a broader pattern across Africa, where Chinese mining operations have been accused of flouting local regulations and prioritising profit over sustainability. In Zimbabwe, Cameroon, and Ghana, similar patterns of environmental destruction and labour violations have fuelled protests and government crackdowns.

In Zambia, protests erupted in Kitwe and Chingola, where community activists decried the lack of corporate accountability. Civil society organisations have demanded stronger oversight, with some calling for the nationalisation of Chinese-controlled mines. However, given Zambia’s economic dependence on Chinese funding, the government remains reluctant to challenge Beijing’s economic stronghold.

Need for a strategic change

Zambia must break free from its dependency on China by strengthening regulatory oversight, diversifying investment partnerships, and pursuing international support for debt restructuring. Regulatory bodies must be granted full autonomy and financial backing to ensure compliance with environmental and labour laws. The government must also impose stricter penalties on foreign corporations that violate Zambian regulations, including mandatory reparations for environmental damage and the potential revocation of mining licenses.

Economic diversification is crucial in reducing Zambia’s vulnerability to Chinese financial leverage. Encouraging investment in industries beyond copper, such as renewable energy, manufacturing, and agriculture, can provide alternative revenue streams and reduce reliance on mining exports. Furthermore, Zambia must foster stronger trade relationships with regional partners and Western investors to counterbalance China’s influence.

Debt restructuring efforts must be pursued with a clear strategy to prevent future dependency. By seeking multilateral assistance through organisations such as the IMF and African Development Bank, Zambia can negotiate more equitable debt repayment terms that do not compromise its national sovereignty. Strengthening regional alliances within the African Union will also provide Zambia with collective bargaining power in debt negotiations.

Zambia must also demand greater environmental accountability from foreign investors. Legislative reforms should require full disclosure of environmental impact assessments before mining licenses are granted. Furthermore, civil society organizations and grassroots activism must play a more significant role in advocating for stronger environmental protections, ensuring that local communities are no longer sidelined in decision-making processes.

What’s next for Zambia?

Zambia stands at a critical inflection point. The Kafue River disaster is not merely an environmental catastrophe but a stark warning of the dangers of economic dependency and weak regulatory oversight. Without decisive action, Zambia risks entrenching a modern form of economic colonialism, where natural resources are exploited without accountability, and political sovereignty is eroded by foreign debt traps.

Breaking free from this cycle requires a bold recalibration of Zambia’s economic strategy. By diversifying investment sources, strengthening institutional resilience, and enforcing stringent environmental protections, Zambia can reclaim its sovereignty and safeguard its ecological future.

The choices made today will shape Zambia’s economic and environmental trajectory for decades. If Zambia is to truly assert its independence, it must confront its financial vulnerabilities head-on and demand greater accountability from foreign investors. The Kafue River crisis should not just be a tragedy—it must be a turning point for Zambia’s future.

[Writer is an Indian Navy Veteran and Adjunct Research Faculty (Strategic & Security Studies) at Naval War College, Goa]


(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)