2024: Year of the Trump phenomenon

Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in November 2024, becoming only the second leader ever to win a second non-consecutive term at the White House. But he was coming to the position slowly from the start of the year, inch by inch.

The year started with the first major opponent of Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, pulling out of the race after Trump threatened to expose him. Soon, other contenders came in, including Indian-origin leaders Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. While Ramaswamy, a political newcomer, switched alliances with Trump, Haley remained a holdout till the last moment, eventually accepting him as the Republican candidate, albeit grudgingly. 

Trump rewarded Ramaswamy for his newly expressed loyalty by putting him in charge of the upcoming Department of Government Efficiency, along with the world's richest man, Elon Musk. But he did not forget the vitriol unleashed by Haley on the campaign trail, by not including her in his cabinet even after making the right noises. Not only that, he went on to openly say that she'll not be included in his team, adding insult to injury.

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Was Trump's victory a foregone conclusion? In many ways, yes. Trump was able to articulate and exaggerate 'the fear of the other' among the mostly white majority who supported him. But more than that, he appears to have chipped into the traditional Democratic voting base of minorities and women too. Every community that had grievances against the Democratic administration of Joe Biden seems to have voted for Trump, or stayed away from voting, 'in revenge'. Particularly prominent among such voters were the Muslim and Arab Americans. Their community leaders were vocal against the continuing support of the US for Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza in retaliation for the October 7, 2023 terror attack. In spite of massive casualties of Palestinian civilians and a humanitarian catastrophe, Biden continued to support and arm Israel, and Democrats paid a heavy price at the election.

Blacks and Hispanics who voted for Trump may have done so due to the continuing slow economic growth and a perception that migrants -legal and illegal - were taking away American jobs. By promising to revive local manufacturing and create jobs, Trump played the right tunes they wanted to hear.

The white majority voted for Trump to maintain their way of life. That involved jobs, without the threat of cheap labour replacing them at the workplace, and maintaining sentimental and religious beliefs they hold dear. Trump's antagonist approach to LGBTQ and transgender rights, in the view of his supporters, was advocating traditional family and marriage (as the one between a man and a woman). 

Many of his supporters believed Trump when he said on the campaign trail that he was the only one who could stop the wars raging in Ukraine and West Asia. It's true, though the mainstream media hardly gives him any credit, that Trump did bring about rapprochement between Israel and some of its traditional Arab rivals through the Abraham Accords. It's also true that Trump has a direct line with Russian President Vladimir Putin and could bring about an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump is no fan of either Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky or the NATO military alliance that's propping up his country against the mighty Russians even when aware that the two countries are no match in military terms. Zelensky suddenly started talking about a peace deal soon after Trump won, clearly aware that the flow of arms and cash would end once Biden exits the White House.

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Trump is also the only president who has had a direct meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un. Kim, whose troops have now joined Russia in the Ukraine war, has vowed the strongest anti-US policy as Trump takes over, but Trump might still have the ability to bring him to the negotiation table, which Biden didn't even attempt.

The Trump phenomenon was not only helped by his strong stance on domestic issues, illegal migrants, the economy and the traditional American way of life. His stance was boosted by the continuous efforts of what his backers call the deep state to discredit him. 

The only way to ensure Trump doesn't win was to prevent him from running for office. Throughout 2024, the Democratic establishment hounded him with court cases: from 2020 election interference to Stormy Daniels hush money case and tax evasion. Had he not been as rich as he is, Trump would have fallen victim to these. With money in the bank, boosted by the rise of his social media platform Truth Social, Trump not only fought the cases but successfully turned them in his favour in the eyes of his supporters. They believed him when he said it was all a witch hunt.

Those who felt sympathy towards Trump but were still sitting on the fence about voting for him were fully converted when Trump survived an assassination attempt. What could have changed the course of events, worked massively in favour of Trump. 

It's partly the boost to his popularity following the bid on his life, that led Democrats to reconsider Biden as the rival for Trump. Till then, Biden was fully confident of winning a second term and pushed back against attempts within the party to persuade him to exit the race. But eventually, the palace coup won. Biden, who even did a presidential debate with Trump, was forced to exit the race by his own party, which brought in his vice president Kamala Harris as the new Democratic candidate.

Coming in at the fag end of the election year, Harris suffered at the election from what could only be called 'too much in too little time'. Contrary to what mainstream media and paid punditry made one believe, Harris didn't stand a chance. The electorate was divided almost evenly. It was only a question of who will win the electoral votes. And Trump eventually won both the electoral votes and the popular vote.

The Trump phenomenon is only resuming in 2024. It had made its impact in his first term. And it will be at full display after he takes over on January 20. By vocalising the prejudices and fears of the majority, Trump has managed to divide the polity. There's going to be a rise in hateful rhetoric, racism, police brutality and border crackdowns which were the hallmarks of his first term. Trump is re-entering a country and world roiled by divisions and conflicts not seen in recent memory. Will he ameliorate them, or accelerate them? Will Trump the candidate be different from Trump the president? Going by his current priorities as president-in-waiting - accession of Greenland, control of Panama Canal and making Canada the 51st state - the lunacy is only beginning.

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.