G20 comprising the world‘s largest developed and developing economies and two significant regional associations – the European Union and the African Union  –   plays “a crucial role in influencing global policy making and fostering economic stability,” noted Cyril Ramaphosa, President of South Africa,  on 3 December 2024, as his nation assumed the G20 presidency two days earlier. 

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In the past three months, South Africa has hosted two important meetings  –   of the foreign ministers on 21 February in Johannesburg and the finance ministers and central bank governors on 26–27 February in Cape Town. The US Secretary of State and the Treasury Secretary were absent from these meetings. The absence of G20’s most powerful member at these important deliberations has cast a dark shadow on the grouping’s immediate future. 

Why were the two US dignitaries away from the G20 ministerial meetings? Will the US attend the G20 summit in November 2025? These and other questions have been causing sleepless nights to G20 representatives and scholars, keeping in mind the vital role the US plays in this grouping and recalling that it was the US that helped elevate the G20 from the ministerial to the summit level in 2008 to tackle the global financial crisis successfully. 

US-South Africa equation 

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South Africa holds the G20 presidency as a culmination of consecutive presidencies by the Global South nations – Indonesia, India, and Brazil. This is the first time G20, as an institution, has come to the African continent. South Africa has adopted Solidarity, Equality,  Sustainability as the chosen theme of its presidency, which the G20 foreign ministers endorsed at their meeting in Johannesburg. 

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Turning down the invitation to participate in the Johannesburg meeting, Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, observed in a post on X, “My job is to advance America’s national interests, not waste taxpayer money or coddle anti-Americanism.”  BBC reported on 20 February that Rubio’s decision not to attend the meeting came because, as he put it, South Africa was doing “very bad things” using the G20 “to promote ‘solidarity, equality, and sustainability.’ In other words, DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) and climate change.” The US government was represented by its chargé d'affaires at its embassy in Pretoria. 

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Reports suggested that the US unhappiness with the South African government due to its recent land reform policy and its tough attitude towards Israel explained the US decision. Experts also worried over the sharp and basic divergences between some elements of the ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA)  programme and the G20 agenda. Debate has been underway on whether the US absence is temporary or whether a pathway may be found so that the US government becomes optimally re-engaged at high levels. 

It should be underlined that following South Africa, the G20 presidency is scheduled to move to the US from 1 December 2025. Hence, it is a matter of great consequence that the US Sherpa joins the Troika mechanism to help his counterparts – the  Sherpas of Brazil and South Africa – to shape the decisions that will emanate from the G20 summit. Can only two horses drive a three-horse carriage? 

Challenges for G20 

In 2022, Indonesia,  as the president, faced the conflict in Ukraine as a central challenge. In 2023, India had to handle the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. In 2024, Brazil added to the two wars the challenge of emerging power transition in the US. In this light, South Africa faces the most formidable challenge of dealing with a radical change in the global geopolitical landscape,  with the US foreign policy making a major, multi-dimensional break from the past; G7 unity suffering severe divisiveness; and a real risk facing G20 that the leaders of the US, Russia and one or two other nations may be absent from the next summit. 

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Presenting the presidency’s perspective, Ronald Lamola,  Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa, spoke of “a pivotal moment” in terms of global trade and geo-economic pressures, noting that at the centre were ”widening geopolitical divisions” that created “a climate of distrust” which could unravel progress achieved by G20 so far in addressing the global challenges. He strongly urged the G20 to tackle “these geopolitical schisms”, for they do have a negative impact on the global economy’s performance. 

 The Chair’s Summary, issued at the end of the foreign ministers' meeting, indicated that geopolitical divisions would be discussed only by the Sherpas,  the Foreign Ministers, and the Leaders,  thereby ensuring that the G20 Working Groups would confine themselves to technical (i.e., economic) issues.  

This document also reflected the substance of consensus reached on other critical issues such as the reform of the UN and the international financial architecture, financing for development, and the proposed review of G20 itself. There was also support and recognition that “African voices need to be heard and elevated in the work of the G20 as well as in finding solutions for addressing the world’s pressing global challenges.” 

Deliberations in Delhi 

On 6 March, Jindal Global University’s Center for G20 Studies hosted, in New Delhi, an in-depth dialogue on ‘South Africa’s G20 Presidency: Priorities, Prospects and Possibilities.’ The host institution’s central question – ‘Whither  G20?’ – shaped the deliberations, attended by well-known experts, foreign diplomats, and young scholars. Anil Sooklal, South Africa's High Commissioner to India, made a detailed presentation, noting that G20 would go through “a very difficult year” in 2025. He conceded that the absence of the US could impact the G20 in a big way, emphasizing that the grouping needed solidarity more than ever before. However, he expressed optimism that it would find “a common ground” to deal with key challenges – for the world’s sake. As the president, South Africa would do its best to secure this goal. 

In the following panel discussion, various aspects were covered. G20 reflects the ongoing power games on the international stage. Changing power equations would inevitably mould G20 decisions. At a time when developed nations are unwilling to find finance for climate change, development, and debt relief, the leading countries of the Global South should come forward with a self-help plan and launch a new fund from their own resources. IBSA, comprising India, Brazil and South Africa, should invite Indonesia to join this vital grouping. Africa must receive focused treatment from the G20 family. The soft power of the Global South needs to be leveraged suitably. 

A senior Indian official delivered the closing statement wherein he articulated support for South Africa‘s ideas on international disaster response, debt sustainability for low-income nations,  financing for a Just Energy Transition,  critical minerals, and inclusive growth. India has emerged as “the bridge-builder” in G20. At the Johannesburg meeting, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar stressed that the “G20 must always put the imperatives of collaboration higher than the compulsions of competition.”  

In short, those navigating the G20 lead vessel were amply conscious of the choppy waters and darkening clouds around them, but they struck an optimistic note about reaching the shore safely. Will they? Watch this space! 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)