India should rethink on population control measures as it is going to be the most populous nation by next year

According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022 report, 15 November 2022 is predicted to be the day that the global population reaches 8 billion. And India will surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2023.

Another projection, according to the report, is that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s. The population is expected to remain at that level until 2100.

In India, this population growth creates many problems and climate change makes it more aggravated. Shortage of resources is one of the most common problems. But the recently published National Family Health Survey - 5 shows that India's total fertility rate (TFR) is declining but some states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP) are still lagging. UP, Bihar and Assam are the states with TFR above 2 and the total population of these states is 378 million.

Amid the rising population, Population control laws have been hotly debated in recent years in India. Some support the laws whereas some say it will be against reproductive freedom rights.

Some states in India can implement population control laws without getting outcomes like China. First things first, only those states should implement laws which have TFR above 2 and allow a maximum of two children, unlike China which implements laws for the whole country and allows only one child.

Second, another argument is that India will have fewer young people for its security forces. But India has almost 1.3 million active soldiers and it costs more than fifty per cent of its total defence budget (including pension). At the same time, many countries are downsizing and rationalising their defence personnel. According to the report of The Diplomat, The PLA’s size has been cut several times since then – by one million in 1985, 500,000 in 1997, 200,000 in 2003, and, most recently, an announced cut of 300,000 in 2015.

Population control laws will be timely when many Indian cities are overcrowded and have acute water shortages. By 2050, 60% of the population of the country will live in cities as India’s rate of urbanisation is dramatic. By the same year, Mumbai and Delhi will be the two most dense cities in the world.

On the other hand, NITI Aayog, a think tank for government policy making said in its report that India is undergoing the worst water crisis in its history and nearly 600 million people are facing high to extreme water stress. The report further mentions that India is placed at 120th amongst 122 countries in the water quality index, with nearly 70% of water being contaminated.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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