Coronation of an uncrowned king

Coronation of monarchs are pompous affairs. Moves are afoot in Britain to organise ceremonies to crown Charles III as the next king though the event will take place only in May next year. Not so in China. The stage is set for elevation of Xi Jinping as the uncrowned king but there areno parades or fireworks planned.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will start its twice-in-a-decade congress on Sunday and at the end of it, Xi is set to be re-elected as the president for an unprecedented third term. No Chinese president in the last three decades has managed to extend his rule beyond two terms, and a reaffirmation to the top post will elevate Xi to the level of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

As usual, Beijing has increased security around key areas of the capital and movements of people, already curtailed through strict Zero Covid policies, restrained further. It was against such curbs that stunning images of protest banners appearing on a bridge in northwest Beijing surfaced on Thursday. The unveiled banners slammed Covid policies and more shockingly, called for the ouster of "traitor dictator Xi".

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The banners were quickly removed and grainy footage that appeared on Chinese social media showed a person being taken away in a security car.

A lone person’s protest is usually dismissed as insignificant in most of the circumstances. But the fact that it happened in Beijing where surveillance is all-encompassing, and that too days before such a key meeting, signals the level frustration that is gripping the country over the draconian quarantine rules that are stalling the domestic economy.

Xi will not be perturbed by such open defiance by lone-wolf protesters as he has gained complete control of the party machinery, government and military. The top echelons of the party are made up of Xi loyalists and CCP has made clear that unwavering loyalty to the president is expected of them.

At the end of the Congress, a triumphant Xi will walk out with members of the Politburo Standing Committee in tow to the cheers of the assembled delegates. State media will fawn over each other to praise the past, the present and the future plans of Xi. There is no indication that Xi will anoint a successor which means he is looking to be in power for another decade at least, if not for life

While Xi has grown in power, the same cannot be said of the country. Both domestically and globally, China isfacing severe headwinds. The Zero Covid policy continues to disrupt life of millions every week. Anytime a couple of Covid cases are reported in an area, people in the entire vicinity have their life thrown into disarray, with thousands of suspected contacts carted off to government facilities.

Beijing seems to have boxed itself into a corner as the severe isolation policy it continues means that majority of the population has only the protection local vaccines provide, and there is very little natural immunity developed after the virus infection. So, a quick opening could lead to a sudden flare-up in cases and deaths among elderly, as many have stayed away from third booster shots.

The CCP organs have already indicated that there won’t be any easing up of the Zero Covid policy and, how Xi will go about reviving the economy without altering that remains an unknown.

In its latest assessment, the World Bank slashed the growth outlook for China to 2.8 per cent for this year, down from its 5 per cent forecast in April. This is already visible in some provinces where local governments are facing finance crunch and slashing salaries of government servants while youth unemployment is rising.

Another major trouble linked to the economic woes is the falling birth rates in the country. Only 10.62 million babies were born in 2021, an 11.5 per cent fall from 2020. The problem is now looming large as the fertility rate recorded in 2020 was 1.3 children per woman, whereas it should be 2.1 to maintain a stable population.

The China Population and Development Research Centre attributes the falling fertility rate to a range of factors, including health conditions, household income, and drastic changes in the socioeconomic environment.

On the international front, Taiwan tensions and the ongoing tiff with the United States will be on the top of Xi’s agenda. Washington has hit where it hurts when it tightened restrictions on import of high-end chips as Xi had touted technology like artificial intelligence are areas where China will lead the world.

The geopolitical tensions between the two largest economies in the world is also forcing major Western companies to seek production facilities in other countries as illustrated by Apple’s decision to start making some iPhones in India.

The wolf warrior diplomacy China has adopted after Xi came to power is also taking a toll on the country’s image globally. A 14-nation survey conducted by the Pew Research Center found negative image aboutChina has increased dramatically in the past few years, especially after its Covid mismanagement.

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In a blunt assessment of China’s future under Xi, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd – who is a Mandarin scholar and the only world leader to have held one-to-one meeting with the Chinese leader without aides – wrote that Xi is driven by hardcore Marxist-Leninist theories and it is time for the rest of the world to band together to fight for democracy and freedom.

“Xi has pushed politics to the Leninist left, economics to the Marxist left, and foreign policy to the nationalist right,” Rudd wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.

In the essay, the Australian leader traces the roots of this ideological fixation that is driving Xi and sounds an ominous warning on China. “If political change does come, it will more likely arrive after Xi’s death than before it.”

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)