Opinion: Modi vs Manik Sarkar battle about to start in Tripura

Even a year ago, it would have been outlandish to suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party had any prospect in the Tripura. The State has been a Left stronghold where the communists have been ruling for more than two decades. The only other major party, the Congress, has been pushed to the margins. Besides, its general demographic does not lend itself to the kind of political ideology the BJP pursues. However, the situation has changed dramatically over the last few months, and the BJP now senses a real chance at toppling the Left regime. Even those political observers who are doubtful of a BJP win in the State, concede that the party will emerge as a strong force in the Assembly election.

What has brought about this change?

The anti-incumbency factor is certainly one reason. In the absence of a viable opposition, the Left had a clear field and it made most of it in the last 20 years. With the BJP’s emergence, the ground situation has altered. The second reason is the BJP’s relentless focus on the North-East — politically and otherwise. Its victory in the Assam Assembly election, where it demolished the ruling Congress, had set the tone for its push in the region. It managed to form the Government in Arunachal Pradesh through deft manoeuvrings, and then in Manipur where it was not even the single largest party, when it outfoxed the Congress by stitching an alliance in double quick time.

The third reason is that the BJP has shown remarkable flexibility in dealing with ground realities in the region. For instance, while it aggressively pursues the cow agenda across the country, it has toned down the rhetoric in the North-East, saying that it does not want to interfere in the eating habits of the people there. The party has also been prompt in having an understanding with regional outfits that wield influence over tribes and communities specific to the region. And so, while it was at the helm of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) which it formed a couple of years ago, the real players are the regional parties. The BJP realises that it cannot make an impact on its own in many parts of the region.

The BJP’s pre-poll surge in Tripura is even more remarkable when one looks back at its past performance. In the 2013 Assembly election, the party had less than two per cent of the vote-share. There was a significant improvement in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, when the party gained a six per cent share. But even that was less than half of the Congress’s 16 per cent and the Left’s overwhelming 65 per cent. Going by these figures, the BJP ought to have conceded the present contest even before it began. But the change in the public mood — at least the one gleans through media reports from the ground — has been so remarkable that the old numbers don’t count.

As has been its habit, the BJP has gone for the kill. Party president Amit Shah has camped in Tripura for long periods, overseeing the election campaign and, in his characteristic style, delving into the micro-management of the process. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invested politically too, addressing far more rallies than would be normally necessary for a small State such as this. The BJP in charge of the North-East, Ram Madhav, virtually resides in Tripura. Everybody understands that, for public sentiment against the Left regime to be converted into votes for the BJP, the party’s poll machinery has to work without tripping — more so at the last moment.

The BJP is dependending heavily on the 30 per cent of the tribal votes, and keeping that in mind, is pushing the development agenda call. The tribal regions are among the most affected by non-development. It has tied up with a regional outfit, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, that commands some standing among the tribals. But the party is not ignoring the other voters, reminding them that decades of Left rule had pushed the State back while BJP-ruled parts of the country had surged ahead in the last four years of the NDA rule.

The Left understands the challenge, and it has fallen back on the tried and tested formula of ‘communism versus communalism’ narrative. The communists have warned the voters against the dangers of social unrest and communal strife that could come along with a BJP win. They have highlighted the various pro-poor measures that the Manik Sarkar Government has taken over the years. The Left’s desperation to retain Tripura is understandable. It has lost its earlier citadel, West Bengal, and rules only in Kerala — and even there the BJP has begun breathing down its neck, although the Congress still remains the main opposition.

The Left’s track record of development in Tripura is being severely tested. Both the plains and hills have their own sets of problems. Unemployment, lack of road and rail connectivity, poor industrial development, and lack of avenues of opportunities for tribals to improve their living, are some of the major issues. But the communists have some positives going for them. Chief Minister Manik Sarkar enjoys a clean personal image. He has steered Tripura to political stability and has ensured that basic social indices remain decent. No major scandal has hit his regime in the two decades of its rule. Besides, the Left has a strong cadre in the State and its supporters have seeped into nearly every institution, and have the capacity to turn things around.

On the personality front, the BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma, while the Left has its old warhorse and Chief Minister Sarkar. Left leaders on the national scene, such as Sitaram Yechury and Prakash Karat, hardly have any sway in Tripura. The BJP-led Government at the Centre has gone all out by way of its own contribution to the party’s fortunes in the region. For instance, the Union Ministry of Textiles has planned a big push to textile manufacturing in the North-East, which would naturally include Tripura. Other Central ministries have promised loads of development work to the region. Underlying all these assurances is the thrust that a BJP regime in Tripura can gel better with the BJP-led Government at the Centre and, thus, expedite development.

If the Left can stave off this new and unexpected challenge, it will not just retain power but also perhaps cause a dent in the BJP’s drive to politically secure the North-East.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)