From Shiv Sena to TMC: How close is NDA to the magic number

Dharashiv MP Omraje Nimbalkar ponders emotionally over his decision to defect from Udhhav Thakrey-led Shiv Sena faction to the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, following the acquittal of Padamsinh Patil of the BJP/NCP alliance in the murder case of his father, Pawanraje Nimbalkar. Nimbalkar reportedly joined politics to serve justice for the murder of his father. His decision also decides the fate of five other MPs who are also gunning for defection from Shiv Sena (UBT), in Maharashtra, as part of the new political manoeuvring termed by the mainstream media as “Operation Tiger”. If Nimbalkar pulls back, they fall short of the two-thirds threshold, which would legally expose the remaining 5 MPs to total disqualification. Operation Tiger is a fresh development in the wave of defections that have set off across India since April 17, 2025.

How a failed vote in April is reshaping India's parliament

On April 17, the Narendra Modi government suffered its first-ever constitutional amendment defeat in 12 years in power. The government sought to increase the strength of the Lok Sabha to 850 seats to "operationalise" women's reservation, but failed to clear a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha. It also sought to remove the constitutional requirement that delimitation be based on the first census after 2026, instead granting Parliament the authority to determine which census would be used for future delimitation exercises. The bill was perceived by many as a threat to the representation of southern, northeastern, and smaller states that had managed their population growth better. The bill was defeated in the Lok Sabha; out of the 528 members participating, the government needed 352 votes. It secured only 298, a shortfall of 54.

Then came a major sweep of defection, one after another, in many political parties, first the Aam Aadmi Party, then TMC, now Shiv Sena (UBT). Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann called the defecting MPs “gaddars”. He called Rahav Chadda a tool who lured 7 MPs to the BJP. In West Bengal, there is a portmanteau that's widely popular and used among party workers. Its called Bejimool, which combines the names of two rival political parties, the BJP and TMC, to imply that these are two sides of the same coin. Within months of the BJP's victory in the West Bengal assembly election, TMC crumbled from within. Even so-called progressive leaders like Saayoni Ghosh, who voraciously attacked Raghav Chadda, decided to rebel. The rebel group was led by four-time TMC MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar. Since the number of MPs in the rebel camp exceeded two-thirds of TMC's strength of 28 Lok Sabha MPs, the provisions of the anti-defection law would not apply. In the Rajya Sabha, Sukhendu Sekhar Ray, Sushmita Dev, and Prakash Chik Baraik resigned from both the Upper House and the party within days of each other.

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How close is the NDA to the magic number?

In the Rajya Sabha, the BJP by itself has 114 seats. With the rapid sequence of structural changes, by-elections, and mergers over the last two months, specifically the major 7-MP merger of former AAP members, and the recent Rajya Sabha polls where NDA swept with 19 out of 26 seats. The NDA now holds 150 seats, its highest number ever and three more former TMC MPs are to join in. The two-thirds threshold sits at 163 seats. It is just 10 short.

While the Lok Sabha journey looks steeper, following the 2024 general elections, the NDA sat at a modest 293 seats. Even with 20 TMC defectors, the tally rises to only around 313, still 49 short. With rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs it can further shoot its numbers to 319. Now there are rumours of a mass structural rearrangement within the Samajwadi Party. UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya claimed that up to 25 to 30 of its Lok Sabha MPs are allegedly preparing to break away and support the NDA. There are also reports of bridging this gap through issue-based support or abstentions from the 22 MPs of DMK, which recently severed ties with the Congress, in Tamil Nadu, following defeat to Joseph Vijay's TVK.

Opposition parties have long called it "Operation Lotus": the systematic dismantling of rival parties through inducements, pressure from central agencies, and carefully engineered defections. Now, whether the government reaches that threshold before the 2029 elections remains the defining political question of the moment, which might decide the fate of the electoral politics of the country.