New Delhi, India

Cyclone Michaung is right in the spotlight as it barrels through Southern Indian states, prompting large-scale rescue operations in cities now inundated. This adds to the alarming tally of climate catastrophes this year in India. 

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The country saw an intense onslaught of extreme weather events in the first nine months of this year, impacting a staggering 86 per cent of days, as detailed in a report by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE). The aftermath was severe, with 2,923 lives lost, nearly two million hectares of crops wiped out, 80,000 homes destroyed, and over 92,000 animals perished. 

Unveiling what's termed the 'new normal,' the CSE's report, named "India 2023: An Assessment of Extreme Weather Events," sheds light on a transformative shift in the country's climate landscape.

In a global context, research points to a surge in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events worldwide, primarily linked to climate change driven by the burning of fossil fuels.

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Despite the 2015 Paris Agreement's call to limit the average temperature rise to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, current reports hint at a significant departure. This necessitates significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to counteract global warming.

Also read | Data Lab | India feels the heat: What happens if the current heatwave trend continues?

The CSE's report delves into regional disparities within India. Madhya Pradesh topped the charts in recording extreme weather events, while Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh witnessed the highest human casualties. Punjab witnessed the highest animal deaths, and Himachal Pradesh reported maximum damage to homes. Down south, Kerala faced the brunt with the highest count of extreme weather days and deaths, while Telangana encountered substantial agricultural losses.

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Vulnerability echoes across regions, with Uttar Pradesh facing the most extreme weather days in northwest India. In the east and northeast, Assam witnessed a substantial number of extreme weather events, underscoring the varied challenges each region grapples with.

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Analysing month by month, the CSE's scrutiny brought to the fore notable temperature anomalies.

January was slightly warmer than average, and February shattered records as the warmest in 122 years.

India experienced its driest August and the sixth driest February in over a century. Lightning and storms dominated, claiming lives, predominantly in Bihar.

However, the most substantial devastation resulted from heavy rains, floods, and landslides, causing over 1,900 casualties.

"This worrying trend is mainly due to global warming and climate change. The increasing heat is causing more droughts, affecting our water supply and food. Also, our oceans are getting warmer, which leads to stronger cyclones with more rain. These heatwaves are not just uncomfortable; they're dangerous, especially for our elderly and children. India, with its long coastline, will face more cyclones, and our inland areas will suffer from more heatwaves. This is a big problem that needs immediate action," Shivang Agarwal, PhD scholar specialising in climate change at Johns Hopkins University, told WION. 

"The country's future outlook hinges on both national and international efforts to address these challenges, emphasising the need for robust resilience systems and international cooperation in climate finance and policy reform," he adds. 

It is important to note that India, in the past ten years has significantly committed resources to enhance its capabilities in predicting storms. These initiatives allow for prompt evaluations of cyclone formation and characteristics, enabling the timely dissemination of warnings to both the government and the public, says Nimish Singh, Associate Fellow at The Energy Research Institute (TERI), New Delhi.

"Establishing a similar early warning system for other extreme events is imperative, and sharing this information with the public will strengthen India's resilience infrastructure. Furthermore, providing incentives such as monetary risk coverage for farmers and start-up entrepreneurs can mitigate the compounded effects of these calamities on the general public," he adds. 

Also read | Global rankings predict high risk to Indian states due to climate change

2023 on track to be the hottest year on record

With just a month left in the year, 2023 is hurtling towards a global warming milestone, set to surpass 1.4 degrees Celsius (2.5 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, creating what the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) describes as a "deafening cacophony" of shattered climate records.

The WMO's early assessment in the provisional State of the Global Climate report leaves no room for doubt – 2023 is destined to become the hottest year on record, surpassing the previous 2016 benchmark when the world was roughly 1.2°C warmer than the preindustrial average.

This revelation intensifies the sense of urgency gripping world leaders grappling with the monumental task of phasing out fossil fuels, a central theme at the United Nations' annual climate summit COP28 being held in Dubai. As COP28 unfolds, the world watches eagerly, awaiting the outcomes and anticipating the climate agenda it will set for the pivotal year of 2024.

The significance of COP28 lies not just in the immediate decisions it may produce but in the trajectory it sets for the collective climate efforts moving forward.

Will it set a climate agenda for 2024 with no room for complacency? All we know is that the climate agenda for 2024 cannot be something about which we can be lax.