New Delhi, India
Sweltering heat has taken a toll on people's lives in several parts of India. As temperatures soared above 45 degrees Celsius in recent weeks, people not only suffered the outwardly wrath of heat, but were bogged down by the unprecedented stress it levied on India’s agriculture, public health, and economy.
India is one of the nations most exposed and susceptible to heat. Studies suggest that the frequency of hot days and nights have risen significantly, and are estimated to increase between two and four-fold by 2050. Additionally, heatwaves are also predicted to arrive earlier, last longer and occur more frequently.
Which strata of society is most affected?
Those working outdoors as daily-wage labourers are the worst hit during a heatwave episode. They mostly lack access to cooling amenities like fans and air conditioners and must continue working in the blistering heat to make ends meet.
“Heatwaves in India pose significant risks to human health as certain strata of society are more affected due to their socioeconomic and health conditions,” Shivang Agarwal, PhD scholar in environmental health and engineering, Johns Hopkins University told WION.
“India has made progress in dealing with heatwaves, particularly in the development of heatwave prediction and early warning systems. However, many challenges remain, including lack of awareness about heatwave risks, limited access to affordable cooling solutions, strained public health infrastructure, and urban planning that often neglects heat resilience. There is a need for continued efforts in public awareness on these issues, to increase India's resilience to heatwaves,” he said.
India saw a 55 per cent rise in deaths due to extreme heat between 2000-2004 and 2017-2019, according to a Lancet’s report released last year.
The country has recorded more than 17,000 deaths due to heat waves in the past 50 years, according to a 2021 research by one of the best meteorologists, reported the PTI.
*This is an interactive data chart. Hover over the chart to get the figures*
Climate change impacting heat?
Extreme heat which engulfed large parts of India and Pakistan was rendered 30 times more likely by climate change, according to a new rapid attribution study by climate scientists.
“India is experiencing the impact of climate change. Due to its geographic diversity and large population exposure to climatic stressors, India is susceptible to all types of natural and climatic hazards. According to projections of climate change for India, more intense climatic conditions with significant variability are anticipated,” Prasoon Singh, Fellow and Area Convenor, Climate Change Division, The Energy Resource Institute (TERI) told WION.
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The Global Climate Risk Index 2021 had ranked India seventh in the list of most affected countries in terms of exposure and vulnerability to climate risk events.
“A 2 degrees Celsius increase in global average temperatures will render India's summer monsoon extremely unpredictable. At a temperature increase of 4 degrees Celsius, a monsoon that presently has a one-in-a-century chance of occurring is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century,” Singh explained.
“A sudden change in the monsoon could precipitate a major crisis, resulting in more frequent droughts and intensified inundation across large portions of India. On the other hand, it is anticipated that droughts will become more frequent in certain regions, particularly in north-western India,” he added.
Also read | Data Lab | Gasping for breath: What is India doing about its air pollution crisis?
Burden of heatwave
Continuing trends of heatwave due to climate change may have profound long-term effects. These include severe health risks like heatstroke, strain on healthcare systems, exacerbated cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and increased mortality rates. Agriculture and food security could be threatened due to crop damage, and water scarcity may become a greater issue, noted Agarwal, while stressing on the need to implement heat action plans for timely response to extreme heat, and utilise early warning systems for accurate forecasts.
If the current warming trends continue, it would unleash a barrage of difficulties that would include a major water crisis, energy scarcity, power outage, productivity loss, supply chain disruption, economic losses, human and livestock deaths, and serious health problems within vulnerable communities.
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