India’s fertility below replacement rate now, but disparities persist: UN report

India’s population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, retaining its status of being the most populous country, says a new UN demographic report, which also highlights that the country’s total fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level.

The report calls for a shift from panic over falling fertility rates to addressing unmet reproductive goals, as millions of people are unable to realise their real fertility goals.

It further says that one in three adult Indians (36%) face unintended pregnancies, while the desire for having either more or fewer children is unfulfilled in 30 per cent. Notably, 23% faced both, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report released on Tuesday.

“Vast numbers of people are unable to create the families they want,” Dr Natalia Kanem, executive director of UNFPA, told reporters. “The issue is lack of choice, not desire, with major consequences for individuals and societies. That is the real fertility crisis, and the answer lies in responding to what people say they need: paid family leave, affordable fertility care, and supportive partners,” Kanem said.

The report titled ‘The real fertility crisis: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world’ underlines that millions of individuals are unable to realise their real fertility goals, and that this is the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation.

It says the answer lies in greater reproductive agency, i.e., a person’s ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family.

The report is based on research and data from a UNFPA–YouGov survey across 14 countries, including India.

It says that one in five people expect not to have the number of children they desire, with the key factors being the prohibitive cost of parenthood, job insecurity, housing, concerns over the state of the world, and lack of a suitable partner.

Financial limitations and housing constraints among key barriers

The UNFPA–YouGov Survey 2025 that tapped 14,000 respondents reveals multiple barriers to reproductive autonomy in India, with financial limitations being the biggest barrier to reproductive freedom.

Nearly four in 10 people cite financial limitations as the reason for not having the families they want. Job insecurity (21%), housing constraints (22%), and the lack of reliable childcare (18%) make parenthood further out of reach.

Besides, health barriers like poor general well-being (15%), infertility (13%), and limited access to care in pregnancy (14%) also play a role. Many hold back due to anxiety about the future—from climate change to political and social instability, while 19 per cent cited pressure from partner or family for having fewer children than they wanted.

‘Population explosion’ versus ‘population collapse’

The report contests the global narratives around ‘population explosion’ versus ‘population collapse’. Replacement-level fertility, commonly defined as 2.1 births per woman, is the rate at which a population remains the same from one generation to the next. India has reached replacement-level fertility of 2.0, but women still face significant barriers to making free and informed decisions about their reproductive lives.

The report identifies these barriers as India’s “high fertility and low fertility duality”.

‘Deep inequalities’

Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, said, “Thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare, India has made progress in lowering fertility rates.”

“However, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups,” she said.

Fertility has fallen below the replacement level (2.1) in 31 states/UTs, but remains high in Bihar (3.0), Meghalaya (2.9), and Uttar Pradesh (2.7).

In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Delhi, many couples delay or skip childbirth due to costs and work-life conflict, especially among educated middle-class women.

“The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to show how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together,” Wojnar added.

Limited infertility services in public sector

Infertility remains a concern in India and should be included in the government’s health insurance schemes. An estimated 27.5 million Indian couples face infertility, but public sector services are limited, while private care is too expensive and limited to urban centres.