China begins world's largest dam on Brahmaputra: A ticking water bomb for India?

China started the controversial hydroelectric dam over the Yarlung Tsangpo River, also known as the downstream of the Brahmaputra in Tibet’s Nyingchi prefecture, just a few km north of the state of Arunachal Pradesh. It is being developed by a newly state-backed entity called China Yajiang Group. The $167.8 billion project is expected to generate 300 billion kWh of electricity annually. The location and timing should have rung alarms at New Delhi.

Why does this dam worry India and Bangladesh?

The Brahmaputra is not just any river; it's a lifeline for millions in India's northeast region. The massive new dam is not the first dam to be built over the Brahmaputra. China has already built several smaller ones, and these dams “should be considered as one of the major flashpoints between India and China,” said B Deepak, a professor at JNU, Delhi.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma stated in June that the Brahmaputra is a river that expands as it flows through India, due to the country's geography and topography. China contributes only 30-35 per cent of the water in the Brahmaputra. He was responding to Pakistan's threat of a hypothetical scenario, “What if China stops the water of Brahmaputra”, calling it another baseless "scare tactic".

Experts in India fear that Beijing’s unilateral control over the river’s upper reaches could give it the ability to manipulate water flow, especially during the monsoon or periods of heightened geopolitical tension. Environmentalists called it a ticking time bomb. The dam, being situated in a seismic zone, can trigger massive floods and landslides, not only in Tibet but also in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and even in Bangladesh. On January 7, a 7.1-scale earthquake killed at least 126 people. The pattern of earthquakes continues in Tibet, and this should also concern India. Following the earthquake, at least five out of the 14 existing dams showed cracks.

The Indian government had previously conveyed its objections during bilateral talks in January, demanding transparency, data sharing, and environmental assessment. However, with China breaking ground on the project, New Delhi’s alarm bells are ringing louder. Throughout Beijing, the crucial turning point of the river is called the ‘Great Bend', from where they say the “river goes rogue”.

India and China do not have a water sharing agreement; it has a hydrological data (water level, rainfall) sharing agreement, which China have previously suspended. The Memorandum of Understanding expired in June 2023, since it is not a treaty, so it is non-binding.

Beijing maintains that the dam will not adversely affect downstream countries, claiming its intent is clean energy generation and regional development. However, the dam is not just a technical tool for power generation; it has significant implications. As Himalayan glaciers recede, whoever holds control over the hardwater source will have a massive advantage in the diplomatic talks. The threat from Pakistan about China's influence over the Brahmaputra is not completely unfounded. Its location also makes this dam one of the most difficult and dangerous engineering feats in the world, keeping northeastern India in a chokehold.