Wion’s monthly global economic health check for October

Let's look at Wion's monthly global economic health check.

Global markets

Broadly, commodities, digital assets and the dollar rose, driven by differing bets. Bitcoin surged over 10 per cent on the so-called 'trump trade,' with the top token now on the verge of breaching its previous record high set in March.

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Gold was the other big beneficiary in October. The yellow metal hit repeated new record highs throughout the month, driven by safe-haven bids from rising tensions in West Asia. Crude oil was not far behind, surging 2 per cent as the market’s attention turned back to a potential flare-up of West Asia hostilities. The dollar kept humming along on safe-haven bets as the US election race heated up.

Asia-Pacific stocks

The sudden shift away from risk assets hit Asian markets. Barring Japanese stocks, regional benchmarks turned red in October. India's Sensex saw the biggest fall in the region, dropping nearly 6 per cent in October. Chinese and Aussie benchmarks fell over one per cent.

Japanese stocks rose over 3 per cent as the yen weakened, boosting the outlook for export-oriented companies.

US stocks

The story in American stocks was no different, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reversing from record highs to close out the month in the red. Canada's stock index was the only exception, rising 0.7 per cent. The Brazilian stock index closed out October in the red, with losses of over 1.5 per cent.

Europe stocks

Stocks across Europe and Africa fell as West Asia tensions and trade flare-up with China weighed on regional stocks. The French CAC saw the biggest losses in Europe, with a drop of 3.7 per cent. The rest declined by over one per cent.

Overall economic outlook

Asia Pacific

Once again, the International Monetary Fund gave India a big thumbs up. The outlook for the rest of Asia remained negative. For China, the outlook is still mired in doubts because of the recession in its real estate crisis despite a stimulus blitz. Clearly, markets and analysts are calling for Xi Jinping to do more to support growth.

US

In America, the outlook for the US, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina shows that more needs to be done. For the US economy, expectations are now for a soft landing rather than a recession. This comes after the Fed's bazooka rate cut in September. But bets of more jumbo-sized easing in November are fading. The economic activity expectations in Canada, Brazil and Argentina were cut.

Europe

On the other side of the Atlantic, the negative outlook seems to be widespread. The UK and other European economies will likely just about avoid a recession. The outlook for African economies also remained negative.