Ukraine's infrastructure has been on the frontlines since Russia's invasion began in 2022. 3 years later, a joint assessment by Ukraine, the World Bank, the European Commission, and the UN, reveals that Ukraine needs $524 billion dollars over the next decade to rebuild. This figure is 2.8 times Ukraine's estimated 2024 GDP. Interestingly, this figure is also what US President Donald Trump aims to extract from Ukraine in the form of critical minerals to continue military aid.

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Ukraine's cost of recovery

The latest assessment, which covers damage from February 2022 to December 2024, shows a sharp rise from the $486 billion dollar estimate released in early 2024. The report highlights the scale of destruction across key sectors.

The war has destroyed 13 per cent of Ukraine's housing stock, affecting over 2.5 million households. Frontline regions in the East, North, and South account for 75 per cent of the total destruction. Energy infrastructure has been a primary target, with Russian strikes on the power grid causing widespread blackouts. Despite Ukraine's recovery plans focusing on restoring energy systems and housing, the escalating damage presents major hurdles.

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This comes as Trump engages with Russia regarding peace restoration in the region. The 'Peace talks' have raised concerns over no Ukrainian participation. Meanwhile, Ukraine's critical minerals are at the centre of Trump-Zelensky negotiations. Trump has asked for strategic access to Ukraine's critical minerals worth $500 billion in exchange for continued military aid. While Zelensky dismissed the offer earlier, saying that such a deal could burden Ukrainians for generations, the latest reports suggest that Ukraine and the US have agreed terms on a minerals deal.

However, the burden is growing on Ukraine to start rebuilding after 3 years of destruction.