UK inflation for April overstated due to data error, statistics department says

The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) has admitted that the annual inflation rate for April was overstated due to a data error stemming from a government department. The ONS announced on June 5 that the actual consumer price inflation for the 12 months to April 2025 was 3.4 per cent, not the initially reported 3.5 per cent.

The discrepancy arose from an error in tax data provided by the Department for Transport (DfT), specifically related to Vehicle Excise Duty (VED). The faulty figures incorrectly inflated the number of newly registered vehicles subject to first-year VED rates, mistakenly pushing up the index used to calculate inflation.

“This issue was isolated to the Vehicle Excise Duty component of consumer price inflation,” the ONS said in a statement. “The error overstated the number of vehicles subject to higher VED rates, thereby marginally inflating both the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) by 0.1 percentage points.”

ONS faces further scrutiny over data integrity

The ONS clarified that no other time periods or inflation statistics have been impacted, and it will not revise April’s official CPI figures retroactively. However, corrected and properly weighted data will be used starting with the release of May’s inflation figures, scheduled for June 18.

This latest data slip comes at a sensitive time for the statistics body, which is already under pressure following recent criticisms over the accuracy of its labour market figures.

In April, the UK government initiated a formal investigation into the reliability and effectiveness of the ONS’s published economic data, raising broader concerns about the robustness of official statistical reporting.

“The ONS is reviewing its quality assurance processes for external data sources in light of this issue,” the agency said, while stressing that the DfT’s official statistics remain unaffected.

Despite the relatively minor scale of the revision, the correction underscores the significant impact that even small data errors can have on headline economic indicators. Analysts note that inflation data feeds directly into interest rate decisions and public sentiment about the economy, making statistical accuracy critical.

All eyes will now be on the May inflation release to ensure that corrected methodologies yield more reliable results.