Trump's first 100 days: what's happened?

US President Donald Trump is approaching the first 100 days in his second term in office. This period has been action-packed, with heightened trade policy uncertainty stemming from a flurry of tariff activity.

Trump's time in the office so far has been a topsy-turvy period for global financial markets and world leaders. He first threatened tariffs, then imposed them and then made a U-turn. Well, at least for the most part.

Recession and stagflation have been the buzzwords. 'Sell American assets' has been the latest trade position. The US dollar and treasuries have been trading like risk and emerging market assets in recent weeks.

The Dow Jones index is set for its worst April since the great depression market horror in 1932. While signs of trump easing off on his rhetoric saw a relief rally in global markets on Wednesday, the possibility of continued volatility remains high.

Leading world bodies like the World Bank, World Trade Organisation, and the International Monetary Fund have warned of a surge in inflation and a significant growth slowdown from trump's tariff rhetoric.

Global leaders have warned of systematic shifts in world trade and a permanent hit to supply chains. Analysts have sold oil to levels not seen in years. Bets on bitcoin and gold have surged, with the yellow metal shining above 3,500 dollars an ounce for the first time this week.

Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan, said, "It has been an eventful 100 days. I think what we've seen has been more disruptive actions, particularly on the trade front, where we've increased tariffs quite substantially on a wide set of countries. We've also increased uncertainty quite significantly as tariffs have been both added and then taken away."

He said, "And we remain in this uncertain environment, on a number of bilateral negotiations going on here. And our net effect of these things has been to shift our forecast to actually incorporate a US recession for 2025."

Kasman added, "We think it will take some time to realise the drags that are in place from the tariff shocks right now. But we look to see the economy begin to falter as we move through the middle part of the year and as we move towards a recession, which we expect to happen sometime in the third quarter."