Trump threatens tariffs on Russian trading partners; will India and China rethink their oil imports?

US President Donald Trump has escalated his stance against Russia by threatening to impose severe financial penalties if Moscow fails to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within the next 50 days. Speaking to reporters on July 14 during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump warned that the United States would introduce “secondary tariffs” on countries that continue to buy Russian energy, including oil and gas, unless President Vladimir Putin agrees to end his invasion of Ukraine.

Trump’s threat includes imposing tariffs of up to 100 per cent on Russian trade partners, a move that would significantly disrupt the global supply chain, particularly for nations that rely on Russian fossil fuels. The US president expressed growing frustration with Putin’s refusal to negotiate a ceasefire, adding that he was “disappointed” by the lack of progress toward a resolution despite earlier talks between the two leaders.

In addition to the tariff threat, Trump confirmed that the US would supply Ukraine with advanced military equipment through NATO nations, with European countries covering the costs. This combination of economic penalties and military support marks a significant shift in the US approach to the conflict and places further pressure on Russia.

Secondary tariffs target key energy buyers: India and China

The threat of 100 per cent secondary tariffs is likely to hit the countries that continue to buy Russian energy, particularly China and India, the two largest importers of Russian crude oil. Since the onset of the Ukraine war, both nations have dramatically increased their oil purchases from Russia, benefiting from discounted prices as Western sanctions have made it difficult for Moscow to sell to European nations.

India, for example, now sources more than a third of its crude oil from Russia, a stark contrast to the less than 1 per cent share prior to the war, according to data from Kpler. In May 2025, India imported more than 2 million barrels of Russian oil per day, and China’s purchases have similarly remained robust, making up almost half of Russia’s total crude exports. These energy deals have allowed both countries to bypass Western sanctions and secure cheaper energy supplies.

The imposition of secondary tariffs could make Russian oil imports significantly more expensive for both India and China, with potential ripple effects on their economies. If these countries continue to buy oil from Russia, US companies would face hefty import taxes on goods produced in those countries, potentially making their products uncompetitive in US markets. This could strain both the economies, especially India, which is heavily reliant on imports to meet its energy needs.

However, experts suggest that while the tariffs could inflict damage on Russian trade partners, both India and China would likely find alternative suppliers, though at a higher cost. For India, the West Asian and African nations could provide substitutes for Russian oil, but these imports come at a premium. Saudi Arabian oil, for instance, costs about $5 more per barrel than Russian oil, which could lead to higher energy prices for Indian consumers and industries.

Despite the economic implications, the immediate reaction from global oil markets has been relatively muted. Brent crude prices fell by nearly 2 per cent following Trump’s remarks, suggesting that traders are sceptical about the immediate impact of the tariff threat on Russian oil flows.

US arms support to Ukraine

Alongside his economic measures, Trump also announced a significant new arms package for Ukraine, signalling continued US support for Kyiv as it battles Russian forces. The US will send “top-of-the-line weapons,” including missiles, ammunition, and air defence systems, to be supplied via NATO allies. European countries will cover the costs of these supplies, but the US is expected to ensure that Ukraine receives the necessary military equipment to bolster its defence.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed that European nations would contribute Patriot air defence systems, which are vital for Ukraine in defending against Russian missile and air strikes. This new wave of military aid comes at a critical moment for Ukraine, which has faced increasing Russian assaults on its infrastructure. The US’s commitment underscores the importance of NATO solidarity in maintaining Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

Economic and military pressure on Russia

Trump’s new measures represent a heightened level of pressure on Russia and its allies, with the goal of forcing Moscow to the negotiating table. Whether these tariffs will have the desired effect on countries like India and China remains to be seen. However, the prospect of higher oil prices and disrupted trade could alter the calculus for Moscow’s economic partners.

For Ukraine, the continued flow of military support from the US and NATO is vital for its defence. While Trump’s stance on Russia has hardened, the outcome of his tariff threat will depend on whether Russia can sustain its oil trade with key buyers or whether the US can effectively use economic leverage to shift the balance in favour of a peaceful resolution.