Toronto Stock Exchange grapples with unprecedented IPO drought. Here's why

Canada's largest stock exchange, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), is grappling with an unprecedented dearth of initial public offerings (IPOs), while the prospects for improvement seems uncertain.

According to a Bloomberg report published on Thursday, only one company has successfully completed an IPO on the TSX this year, marking the first time such an occurrence has transpired since 1993. Lithium Royalty Corp., which raised C$150 million ($108 million) in March, is the sole venture to navigate the challenging IPO landscape in 2023.

Grant Kernaghan, Chief Executive at Citigroup Global Markets Canada, who played a pivotal role in the Lithium Royalty deal. told Bloomberg, "I don't think it's a coincidence that the one deal that got done is a lithium royalty company."

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Historically, natural resources stocks have been a cornerstone of strength for the TSX. Kernaghan said that more battery metals companies will likely seek the TSX as a platform to raise capital, giventhe increasing investor interest in the energy transition.

Nevertheless, Lithium Royalty serves as a cautionary tale for both potential issuers and investors, with disappointing earnings and a dimming outlook for natural resources, especially concerning the sluggish recovery in China. The company's shares faced a challenging debut and have not managed to recover, closing at a 37 per cent decline from their IPO price.

The Canadian stock market, as a whole, confronts challenges, with the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index reaching a one-year low in October. Despite the Bank of Canada's recent decision to keep interest rates steady, the swaps market projects a potential quarter-point cut only in the second half of the following year.

Bloomberg quoted Kernaghan as saying, "The problem is that right now, we have a lot of voices saying that interest rates are going to stay where they are." He suggested that unless a company owner is seeking an exit or another compelling reason drives a firm to sell shares, it makes sense to wait.

While Canadian IPOs have been scarce, some firms in the natural resources sector, such as Strathcona Resources Ltd. and Allied Gold Corp., have entered the market through reverse takeovers, where private companies acquire publicly traded entities and assume the stock listing. Additionally, several companies have chosen to go public via special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) in recent years. Kernaghan noted that the SPAC boom in 2020 and 2021 exhausted the pipeline of companies with IPO potential in the near future.

Kernaghan further expressed a sense of optimism, stating that private equity firms are actively looking to divest their portfolio companies either through initial public offerings (IPOs) or sales. He reasoned by saying that these firms have made substantial investments, and these assets are currently held within their portfolios. Consequently, there is a growing expectation that these firms will become increasingly eager to bring these assets to the market.

John McKenzie, the CEO of TMX Group Ltd,which operates the TSX, also expressed optimism during an earnings call, suggesting that the exchange anticipates increased equity financings in the coming year, with approximately 1,500 prospects in its pipeline.

Notably, the TSX's most prominent upcoming deal is the planned spinoff of BlackBerry Ltd.'s Internet of Things business in 2024, estimated to fetch $1.7 billion. Citi's Kernaghan highlighted the significant expertise in the natural resource sector within Canada, which is expected to support demand for potential issuers.

(Inputs from Bloomberg)

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