New Delhi
In the coming week, new employment numbers are to be issued, and Jerome Powell is to speak to economists, which may bring the appetite of Federal Reserve policymakers for another large interest-rate cut in November into clearer view.
On Monday, the Fed chair will speak at the National Association for Business Economics conference to discuss the US economic outlook. At the end of the week, the September jobs report is expected to show a healthy, yet moderating, labour market.
Payrolls in the world’s largest economy are seen rising by 146,000, a median estimate from a Bloomberg survey of economists forecast. That's similar to the increase in August and would bring the three-month average job growth near its weakest level since mid-2019.
The unemployment rate probably remained steady at 4.2 per cent, while average hourly wages are projected to have risen by 3.8 per cent over the last 12 months.
The latest labour disruption hints that Friday's employment report may be the last good view of the US job market the Fed's policymakers will have before they meet in early November. Boeing Co. factory workers walked off their jobs in mid-September, and Atlantic and Gulf Coast dockworkers announced plans to strike starting Oct. 1.
Along with the main monthly payrolls report, job openings data on Tuesday are expected to indicate that the vacancies for August declined and stayed near their lowest level since early 2021. Economists will also look at the quit rate and layoffs to check how much cooling has occurred in labour demand.
Industry surveys will shed more light on the jobs market from the private sector. The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to post its September manufacturing survey on Tuesday and services index two days later, each containing employment metrics.