Japan’s exports fall for first time in 8 months as US tariffs bite into recovery

Japan’s fragile recovery has hit another roadblock. The country’s exports fell for the first time in eight months in May 2025, raising fears of a technical recession amid a widening trade deficit, falling auto shipments, and escalating US tariff pressure.

Official data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, as reported by Reuters, shows that merchandise exports shrank 1.7 per cent year-on-year in May, missing market expectations of a steeper 3.7 per cent decline. The contraction was led by a slump in car, steel, and mineral fuel shipments.

At the same time, imports dropped 7.7 per cent, primarily due to lower crude oil and coal purchases, resulting in a trade deficit of ¥637.6 billion ($4.4 billion), the second consecutive monthly shortfall.

US tariffs rattle Japan’s top export sectors

The latest export slowdown comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump doubled down on a protectionist trade agenda, imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese car and auto part imports and raising the levy on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent.

The Trump administration also announced a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all Japanese goods, which is set to rise to 24 per cent on July 9 unless a deal is reached. Negotiations between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during the G7 summit failed to produce a breakthrough.

As a result, exports to the United States plunged 11.1 per cent in May, with car shipments alone falling 24.7 per cent year-on-year. Japan’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to ¥451.7 billion, making it a likely target in Trump’s “reciprocal trade” policy push.

“The tariff hit could shave nearly 1 percentage point off Japan’s GDP if all proposed duties take effect,” warned the Japan Research Institute, as quoted by Reuters.

Trade data at a glance

Below is a monthly breakdown of Japan’s year-on-year export growth from January 2023 to May 2025, based on Ministry of Finance data visualised by Bloomberg.

The chart illustrates a clear trajectory in Japan’s export performance over the past two years. From late 2023 to mid-2024, exports showed strong year-on-year growth, peaking notably in November–December 2023 and again in May 2024.

Economists suggest this surge was likely driven by Japanese firms front-loading shipments in anticipation of looming US tariffs. However, the momentum began to fade in the second half of 2024, with exports slipping into negative territory in September 2024.

Although there was a brief recovery in the months that followed, the trend reversed once again by May 2025. That month marked a 1.7 per cent decline in exports, ending an eight-month stretch of expansion and confirming that the impact of US tariffs—previously obscured by early stockpiling—has started to bite into Japan’s trade flows.

Japan Export - Data compiled from Bloomberg chart sourced via Japan Ministry of Finance Photograph: ((Data compiled from Bloomberg chart sourced via Japan Ministry of Finance))

China, Europe, and global trade shifts

Japan’s export troubles aren’t confined to the US. Shipments to China, the country’s largest trading partner, fell 8.8 per cent in May, as demand for industrial goods and electronic components weakened. Exports to Europe, however, rose 4.9 per cent.

According to Reuters, the earlier spike in US-bound shipments this year was partly driven by firms rushing to beat Trump’s tariff deadlines. But with that buffer now fading, Japan’s trade numbers are showing the full impact of US duties.

Recession fears return

With exports falling, a wide trade deficit, and consumption still weak, Japan risks slipping into a technical recession defined as two straight quarters of negative growth. The economy had already contracted in Q1 2025 due to sluggish domestic demand.

The outlook complicates the Bank of Japan’s cautious policy pivot. On Tuesday, the BoJ held interest rates steady at 0.5 per cent, its highest level since 2007, but slowed its pace of bond tapering, citing global risks including Middle East conflict and trade uncertainty.

Economists say rising tariffs and falling exports could force policymakers to delay further tightening, with the BoJ’s ultra-loose decade-long policy still casting a long shadow.

What’s at stake

Japan exported ¥21 trillion worth of goods to the United States in 2024, with automobiles accounting for 28 per cent of that total.

With Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline looming, Tokyo faces mounting pressure to protect its flagship industries—or risk deeper economic fallout in the second half of 2025.

(With inputs from the agencies)