Japan's rice shortage turned into a national emergency, here's what happened

A simmering crisis over staple rice has suddenly boiled over in Japan. Since 2023, a punishing heatwave slashed harvests to their lowest in over a decade.

As of June 2025, a 5-kilogram bag of supermarket rice costs around ¥4,223 (approximately $29), nearly double what it did a year ago, as per Bloomberg. Schools have reportedly reduced rice meals, restaurants have hiked menu prices, and supermarket shelves are seeing panic buying. Below given table represents the rising cost of rice in Japan. From June 2024 to June 2025, rice prices in Japan almost doubled.

Source: Japan Agriculture Ministry, via Bloomberg and Nikkei Asia

The soaring cost of Japan’s most essential grain is now fuelling political anger ahead of national elections in July.

What caused the rice crisis?

The problem traces back to the summer of 2023, when record-breaking heat damaged rice crops across Japan.

According to Bloomberg, the harvest that year hit its lowest level in more than a decade.

The situation worsened in August 2024 when the Japanese government issued a high-impact earthquake warning. Though the quake never occurred, the public rushed to stockpile essentials, especially rice. This surge in demand drove prices further up, as noted by The Guardian.

Post-pandemic tourism has also driven up demand. As per Reuters, Japan’s hospitality sector has seen a sharp rebound, creating additional pressure on rice stocks.

How did the Japanese government respond?

Japan has long maintained a rice stockpile for emergencies, roughly 900,000 tonnes. In March 2025, the Agriculture Ministry released 200,000 tonnes into the market via auction. However, as per Bloomberg, much of this rice never reached supermarket shelves due to bottlenecks in the supply chain.

By late May, Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi ordered a direct release of another 300,000 tonnes under fixed-price contracts to major retailers such as Aeon and Rakuten. According to Reuters, these retailers sold 5kg bags of rice at prices as low as ¥2,138—half the market average. Stocks reportedly sold out within hours.

Yet the government has faced criticism for acting too late. Japan’s small-scale farming and multi-layered rice distribution network have slowed efforts to stabilise prices.

Why Japan isn’t importing more rice

Japan does import rice, but under tight quotas. Beyond the 770,000 tonnes it allows in tariff-free each year, the government slaps tariffs of ¥341 per kilogram on additional imports—equal to nearly 200 per cent in some cases, according to The Guardian.

Facing shortages, Japan has quietly resumed small imports from South Korea for the first time since 1999, as reported by Yonhap News. The April shipment was only two tonnes, with another 20 tonnes scheduled.

Expanding rice imports from the US was floated during ongoing trade negotiations. But, as per Bloomberg, the proposal was shot down after fierce backlash from domestic farmers and conservative voting blocs.

Source: Japan’s Agriculture Ministry and WTO trade filings

Political fallout and public anger

The crisis is now a political flashpoint. Former Agriculture Minister Taku Eto was forced to resign in May after joking that he never had to buy rice—since he received it as gifts. According to NHK, the remark outraged citizens struggling with soaring prices and contributed to his ouster.

Polls conducted by NHK in June showed the nation split: 43 per cent believe rice prices will come down eventually, while 45 per cent believe they will stay high for the foreseeable future.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, whose political base lies in the rural Tottori-Shimane district, is now under pressure to balance support for farmers with growing urban anger over inflation.

Broader impact on households

Rice remains at the centre of the Japanese diet, even though consumption has halved since its 1962 peak. According to the Agriculture Ministry, the average Japanese consumes 140 grams of rice per day, or about 51 kilograms annually.

With retail prices nearly doubling, even convenience stores are charging more for rice balls (onigiri) and bento boxes. As per Bloomberg, some supermarkets have restricted purchases to one bag per customer.

Restaurants are also feeling the crunch. According to The Guardian, high-end sushi outlets and casual eateries alike are increasing prices to offset costs—putting further pressure on consumers.

What happens next?

While the rice shortage has exposed deep structural flaws in Japan’s food security system, reforms will be politically risky. Farm lobbies wield considerable influence, especially in swing districts. In past trade deals, such as during the Trump-Abe era, Japan protected its rice sector by making concessions elsewhere, most notably in beef imports.

Experts suggest that unless Japan relaxes its domestic production controls and import restrictions, the rice crisis may become a recurring problem. But with an election weeks away, no party wants to be seen antagonising rural voters.

As per Reuters, the Bank of Japan is also closely monitoring food inflation. Core consumer prices rose by 3.5 per cent in April, and rice is playing a major role in that figure.

(With inputs from the agencies)